Charlie Lee
I have not talked to Brian (CEO Coinbase) specifically about his tweet, so I'm not exactly sure what he's saying. I don't think he was implicitly supporting XT because he was asking people to code up the various proposals. XT's BIP101 is already coded up. There are various other BIPs out there. I think he is just suggesting that we should code them up and start testing them out.
I do not agree with Brian that any of the current solutions are low enough risk. I will be attending the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in HK in December. I think we should be able to reach consensus on a good compromise soon after that.
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I can tell you that I don't like XT: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/commen ... rking_the/
I much rather prefer Core+BIP101 over XT, but even then I think BIP101 is too aggressive. BIP101 can potentially kill Bitcoin as we know it. BIP100 is a bit better. I have high hopes that Lightening networks can be the silver bullet that let's us have the cake and eat it too. So I would opt for a conservative small increase in blocksize today and give us enough time to iron out Lightening networks and other solutions that can bring scalability to Bitcoin without reducing decentralization and security.
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Bitcoin's reward schedule is designed such that overtime blockrewards go to 0 and transaction fees will be the only thing left to pay for the security provided by miners. Blocksize currently acts as a supply constraint. And with a supply constraint, people who want to use the blockchain natively will have to pay the high fees to support the miners providing the security. Without a supply constraint, there is no fee pressure. Sure, some miners can refuse to mine low fee transactions. But if it gets mined by someone, everyone will have to pay the cost to validate, propagate, and store those transactions. Being decentralized, everyone has to bear the incremental cost of each additional transaction. And the transaction amount is unrelated to how much it costs the network.
I think the incentives will be messed up in this scenario. Potentially large miners will mine large blocks to squeeze out smaller miners. Smaller miners will stop mining because it becomes unprofitable to mine. Bitcoin will become less decentralized and less secure. We've never had a system like Bitcoin that works so well. It's simple and all the incentives are correct for Bitcoin to self-heal and be anti-fragile. I'm afraid increasing the blocksize may throw a wrench into this delicate system.
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t.l.t.r.:
Charlie is in favor of Adam Back's 2-4-8 proposal (or a variant). he thinks that there will be consensus after Scaling Bitcoin workshop in HK in December