Just like Moore's Law predicted back in 1965 that computing power would double every 12 to 18 months, we are now witnessing the transaction counts for doubling on bitcoin at an even higher frequency.
Given that we are basically at maximum capacity already this means that if we were to scale on chain, the block size would have to double at that rate, leading to 8 MB blocks well before the next block reward halving and 128MB blocks before the halving after that or even sooner.
On chain scaling simply is unrealistic. The argument that segwit doubles the block size is besides the point because scaling the blockchain gets us nowhere. Doubling the block size does not buy a lot of time. Only secure, off-chain transactions (aka Layer 2 systems) can deliver on the promise of a large scale, worldwide, decentralized, secure system of money. And the most important aspect of SegWit is that it enables Layer 2 systems.
Miner refusal to activate segwit, which fixes the bug that prevents effective deployment of layer 2 solutions is the primary menace holding back bitcoin and, quite frankly, holding back the world's access to the future of money.
There are two paths to proceed with that have been making the top of this week's submissions: UASF and compromise of SegWit + 2MB blocks.
In fact, it took only 2 days of advocacy for UASF to bring the compromise recommendation out in full force.
We should not give up on either of these. Because actions speak louder than words, there is really no guarantee that Bitmain will actually ever accept SegWit even if the compromise solution is proposed once more. I welcome users to pledge to upgrade to a 2MB hard fork if SegWit is activated. If this gets Bitmain to signal for SegWit, then I say "fantastic". If this doesn't actually bring about miner activation of SegWit, however, before the August 1st flag day for UASF, then I think it's clear that BitMain is pursuing short term fees at the expense of long term viability of Bitcoin, and we can cut them off of fees until they activate SegWit by ourselves activating it using the UASF.
Remember, the UASF does nothing new if miners signal in favour of segwit before its flag day.
So I call on every user, those in favour of and those against big blocks to run the UASF clients and declare for or against bigger blocks as a following step. If we begin with SegWit, we get a bigger block from it (which is purely a temporary stopgap to deal with the next few months of volume) and the ability to deploy layer 2 solutions. Advocating for only bigger blocks only is a stopgap measure that leads to the same dead end we are already at.
As soon as segwit activates we can have a healthy discussion about how to build consensus around a hard fork. And the urgency will still be there to discuss it as bitcoin's growth will only accelerate once SegWit activates.
My concern with expecting a compromise to get approved in any short period of tie is that there are too many parties with too many conflicted motives with too much language barrier and too many details to expect a negotiated settlement to arrive in any reasonable time frame.
I have huge respect for the developer community who have delivered a system that has remained up without any interruption for years. I have huge respect for the miners who have invested heavily in securing this network from attack. I have huge respect for the users that have come on board and converted whatever portion of their savings to bitcoin and stuck with it through all the highs and lows.
There is nothing to lose by activating SegWit as soon as possible and keeping the debate about bigger blocks going. The UASF moves the community of all those constituents forward towards the necessary requirements of the future. If any one particular miner does not wish to be a part of that future, they have to be left behind, but not forever. They can rejoin at any time they choose.
Let's move forward. Let's activate SegWit by requiring all blocks to signal for it by August 1st via UASF. Let's make the future of money possible for the whole world.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/commen ... full_node/
https://uasf.bitcoinreminder.com/
