When the ETF fails, how low will bitcoin drop?

[Thetamind]

I'm fairly certain the etf is going to fail. Call it a hunch.

When it does, where do you think the floor is? How low will the price of bitcoin drop before it levels out? Do you think it will be under 200 dollars? Under 500?

I am considering shorting bitcoin for the etf, because the chances of approval appear to be slim to none, and I think the profit will be gained in shorting it.

Any other opinions are welcome... tell me why it will be approved, or what your strategies may be for the coming ETF. Thanks

[patrick.miller]

I'm fairly certain the etf is going to fail. Call it a hunch.

Sounds like you're not certain, you're just pretty sure.

When it does, where do you think the floor is? How low will the price of bitcoin drop before it levels out? Do you think it will be under 200 dollars? Under 500?

Not likely to go under $1000 for a sustained period of time. The network value today is far more based on usage and adoption, and store of value, not as much speculation.

I am considering shorting bitcoin for the etf, because the chances of approval appear to be slim to none, and I think the profit will be gained in shorting it.

Sure, short it if you feel your hunch is a good measure of accuracy... the honey badger will survive and get stronger regardless. There will likely be ETFs in Japan and other countries in time.

Any other opinions are welcome... tell me why it will be approved, or what your strategies may be for the coming ETF. Thanks

I have no idea if it will be approved. I hope it is, as I think ETFs open up Bitcoin to an enormous amount of liquidity, and that liquidity is off-chain, and will help secure its' store of value proposition even further.

[Possum577]

Where do put in the short? I wasn't aware that this was possible with Bitcoin due to the fact that the financial/investment regulations that exist in the fiat world don't exist with bitcoin.

You might be using the short for the wrong reasons, in the wrong way.

Are you trying to multiply the power of your available funds? If not, it's not a short you should be using. Does your opinion on the direction of the market change if the ETF doesn't get approval?

Instead, since you have a "fairly certain hunch" that the market will fall on the ETF news, get out now. Sit on the sidelines. Wait for that drop to come, then buy back in and ride the recovery.

You don't need to make money off the fall and the recovery. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered!

[mjglqw]

A drop in price would definitely occur if that's the case, but I honestly don't think it would drop lower than $1000, and it would rise again most probably after the drop.

[Thetamind]

I have no doubt it will rise again.

Im just wondering where the floor is.

[piebeyb]

I am not sure it will come back under the price of $ 500 or $ 1,000, I believe that future technology will affect the payment system more sophisticated, at least one digital currency such as bitcoin least better

[Windowly]

I don't think it will go down much. . . It's been around 1k for too long -- even if it slips under it will recover pretty quickly, I'd guess.

[mjglqw]

I don't think it will go down much. . . It's been around 1k for too long -- even if it slips under it will recover pretty quickly, I'd guess.

This. If ever it drops, even lower than 1000, it would surely bounce back in a week or two.

[erosvenus]

I could care less about the etf. This reaction from the market is great, though! Buying opportunities abound, gentlemen. Think I'm going to see what the price is doing tomorrow and buy some more.

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[Rmcdermott927]

If you would have asked me yesterday I would have said $600-800. I'm happy and surprised to report that doesn't seem to be the case. It looks like a good bet that 1100+ will hold.