AntPool BU vote analysis

[arnoudk]

Hey all,

I've been away from this forum for a while, but I've not been too far away from bitcoin!

I have just done some simple analysis of the blocks mined by AntPool. Just to get a feel of what servers they are using to run BU vs Core.

These are all their BU blocks:
AntPool BU? BlockNr BlockHash

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AntPool BU? BlockNr BlockHash bj0 BU 456326 0000000000000000006faa30b3eabf214038933b86f21a725201de3766ae58d0 456220 000000000000000001854cb927fa498625d66ea7b7dcd7065e76e881f10dc82c bj1 BU 456347 000000000000000000ccab99d4552c1aec1c85bf85ca7942c8df7721192ecfe2 bj13 BU 456314 0000000000000000012e1b106c57a4bff167d42328b98f4d815dcdebba8d09c3 bj14 BU 456350 00000000000000000253fa3620a7e89e1734d3ffea816998a65d1f73c9f42882 bj15 BU 456181 00000000000000000157b1f85ce097e8e90f026942d43af70f7212195de60930 bj5 BU 456337 0000000000000000015ce37a06e58c10edb2e482c89073be9561aa6aa8886f9d 456308 0000000000000000008a95bf85fe4c8476331d909c3c2a4fd439a95260f6cc53 456268 000000000000000001af8a8f5bcb48f4b446ba61319bd3eabd79fd8c2cd556e9 456242 0000000000000000014890f6d26a626e9dc0148d88dd51755987fab9a070beed 456238 000000000000000001191043bb38209f0cafba0d67e0d616f906b637ee943bb2 456156 0000000000000000018e56c76df24593e4a336ab48dd2ae219361914122d68d6 456109 000000000000000001ba66fd3c2be1bf34de2936450c882de806e0aade9ddf53 456039 00000000000000000204cd2c9840023f1434f3dcdd7f471e4b8c8638d14d7006 bj8 BU 456058 00000000000000000169a9005d3a39771a63f0f14053be47fdcfa4ed6031d083 456040 0000000000000000004fbf72babd275b0956855f0e1502fbbdcebe7ff3665674 wy BU 456240 000000000000000001d128796503de7ee1c2f847d31a70b5ad2bd3034ea896de 456228 000000000000000000cc6f1e38fa16b1a23b932d9e30e5e5794c28e98022b9f8 456092 0000000000000000019bb68e68e9fb7af7a06d6586d609c38328794b81a847eb

Here are a bunch of statistics about blocks mined per AntPool node.

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AntPool BU? Count - BlockNr bj0 BU 2 non BU 54 bj1 BU 1 non BU 42 bj10 non BU 6 bj11 non BU 51 bj13 BU 1 non BU 13 bj14 BU 1 non BU 53 bj15 BU 1 non BU 47 bj5 BU 8 non BU 50 bj6 non BU 68 bj7 non BU 58 bj8 BU 2 non BU 48 dq non BU 82 sc9 non BU 5 usa0 non BU 13 usa1 non BU 102 usa2 non BU 92 usa3 non BU 97 usa4 non BU 46 wy BU 3 non BU 71 xz0 non BU 19 Total Result 1036

These are all blocks from 450000 to 456353

I must say that I found some interesting Coinbase messages in there. Maybe I missed it but was AntPool hacked briefly?

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000000000000000001b77bdc9a9a3c9185651ff981e21656364bb0b953378bcb ____/Mined by AntPool usa1 __5_ www_dojotech_io X___/___Y___ usa1 000000000000000001bc38ee3e27948e0121aad309a38b4c7f6c3e6f6abc9676 _____Mined by AntPool bj11 ____ Urime ditelindja_Vigan Qerimi X__q_______V bj11 000000000000000001af854209c68ea9d6f379adedd580454b873c40bf4e38fb ____8Mined by AntPool usa3 ____ Australia Day_ Big Block X___________ usa3 000000000000000001bf055be387b328220e7b087810ff63ecf380c1aad14027 _____Mined by AntPool bj11 ____ Zaoral v gulp _ vk_com/ecluck X_______B___ bj11 0000000000000000006cfb0e5d771651a268ec38573131751315831bf6dc7bf4 _____Mined by AntPool bj5 /__h From Poland X__f________ bj5 0000000000000000008be4a13a0eeb80e5b7591c1d2b7354b83b72521f6e5941 _____Mined by AntPool bj1 _b__ Herbie HSP D__sseldorf DE BRF_ X__J____2___ bj1 000000000000000000272179906c1dfbd7b1464bc4760b580ab39b59fa3fd039 ____2Mined by AntPool usa1 __5_ youhack_ru forever X___________ usa1 000000000000000002592d84682d16e14e1f0e0f553b66040ba5fc19beacf3eb _____Mined by AntPool bj11 ____ bitcoin willer X__K_____A__ bj11 00000000000000000220aeff22caa3501aa339eb718ed09b6de397460f7925de _____Mined by AntPool usa2 ____ Earn X___X____9__ usa2 00000000000000000274ec095285960f7e230551f3c4cd25a0c124246708007b _____Mined by AntPool bj8 0P__ Earn X________k__ bj8 0000000000000000017fb341c0d81feaf0f3c46150ae30cd1862a61bf938f0b2 _____Mined by AntPool usa1 __5_ Earn X__J_________ usa1 000000000000000001ae55e6bdac3185626e7fd44b8d234382face59f984c7df _____Mined by AntPool bj15 ____ FCKYA X__L ___G___ bj15

[arnoudk]

Better formatting

BU signaling by AntPool per node:

• 0 out of 5 USA nodes are signaling BU
• 8 out of 11 Beijing nodes are signalling BU

Table (from block 450000 to 456389)

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Node #bu #nonbu xz0 0 19 wy 3 71 usa4 0 46 usa3 0 98 usa2 0 92 usa1 0 102 usa0 0 13 sc9 0 5 dq 0 82 bj15 1 47 bj14 1 53 bj13 1 13 bj11 0 52 bj10 0 6 bj8 2 48 bj7 1 58 bj6 0 68 bj5 8 50 bj1 2 42 bj0 2 54

[bitkilo]

Nice job with the analysis of Antpool block signaling you have made, thanks.

Interesting to see the difference between the signaling of blocks in the US compared to Beijing.

[arnoudk]

Bitkilo - you are welcome!

Here's the status as of a few minutes ago. 9 out of 11 Beijing nodes are now signaling for BU.

Table (from block 450000 to 456463)

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Node #bu #nonbu xz0 0 19 wy 3 71 usa4 0 49 usa3 0 100 usa2 0 93 usa1 0 103 usa0 0 14 sc9 0 5 dq 0 82 bj15 2 47 bj14 1 53 bj13 1 13 bj11 1 52 bj10 0 6 bj8 2 48 bj7 1 58 bj6 0 68 bj5 9 50 bj1 2 42 bj0 2 54

[BitcoinXio]

Looks like they are testing the waters to see how BU performs.

[arnoudk]

On Reddit, I got the question to show how the nodes are switching (time wise).

I've updated the table to show the first block number for each node to mine a BU block. That's an indication (a guestimate) of when they would have switched.

Here's the table.

Table (from block 450000 to 456504)

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Node #bu #nonbu firstbu xz0 0 19 wy 3 71 456092 usa4 0 50 usa3 0 100 usa2 0 95 usa1 0 103 usa0 0 14 sc9 0 5 dq 0 82 bj15 3 47 456181 bj14 1 53 456350 bj13 1 13 456314 bj11 1 52 456461 bj10 0 6 bj8 2 48 456040 bj7 1 58 456363 bj6 0 68 bj5 9 50 456039 bj1 2 42 456347 bj0 3 54 456220

[arnoudk]

Looks like they are testing the waters to see how BU performs.

Yes, I agree. Makes sense to test the two configurations side by side and see what happens.

[mjglqw]

Interesting stuff.

Still currently undecided between BU and segwit though. :/

[arnoudk]

Interesting stuff.

Still currently undecided between BU and segwit though. :/

I guess there's just one important question (unless you are a miner). Would you accept the choice made by a majority of miners, or would you choose to stay on a minority chain?

[mjglqw]

Interesting stuff.

Still currently undecided between BU and segwit though. :/

I guess there's just one important question (unless you are a miner). Would you accept the choice made by a majority of miners, or would you choose to stay on a minority chain?

It's not the best way to decide like that though. I'd prefer not to just decide by choosing the majority side, thats like the worst mindset a person can have to be honest.

[TomZ]

Interesting stuff.

Still currently undecided between BU and segwit though. :/

I guess there's just one important question (unless you are a miner). Would you accept the choice made by a majority of miners, or would you choose to stay on a minority chain?

It's not the best way to decide like that though. I'd prefer not to just decide by choosing the majority side, thats like the worst mindset a person can have to be honest.

In reality the choice will be made quite easy.

First of all, I feel this is all a big show. Much like the presidential elections. Many people claimed they would move to Canada if Trump got elected, and here we are with numbers still hovering in single digits. People make dramatic statements to fear people. But when you actually have to spend money this may change.

Because here is the fun part, there is about $80000 per hour in mining. If you mine on the minority chain, you may get zero dollars because nobody knows if the chain will live longer than an hour or two. And that doubt alone will cause even less miners to mine on it. Downwards spiral from there on out.

Next to that, if you have to choose between a chain that has reasonably sized blocks, has blocks coming in every 10 minutes or so and on the other side a chain that has 1MB blocks, has blocks coming in every 100 minutes, which would you choose? Practically speaking, you can't really choose the minority chain as your transactions will never confirm.