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GreyWyvern
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Re: BITCOIN TO REACH $500,000 BY 2030

Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:54 pm

I've been claiming free Bitcoin & I believe Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2030.
That seems like a bold prediction. Let's look at things rationally:

In 2014, world GDP was $107 trillion USD. World GDP has been growing at an annual rate of 4% or so the last few decades so let's assume that continues. In 2030, world GDP will be $201 trillion USD.

Many of these articles that mention the $500,000 valuation also predict that BTC will be the sixth largest reserve currency by 2030, which would put it around 2% use. Suppose Bitcoin (or whatever becomes the mainstream crypto) captures just 2% of that GDP market. (Right now it's at .03%) That means the market cap of BTC would be $4.02 trillion*. By 2030, almost all BTC will have been mined and there will be about 20.5 million of them in existence.

So: $4.02 trillion / 20.5 million = $196,097 per coin.

That's for just 2% of world GDP. Also, that's about $200,000 in today's USD, not the inflated (or crashed) version of 2030, so an estimate of BTC value in 2030 of $500,000 USD is actually pretty sound!

Personally, I believe BTC (crypto in general) is headed towards capturing a far larger share of world liquid currency than 2%, but YMMV.

* Yes I'm conflating GDP to BTC market cap which isn't strictly accurate. I'm generalizing.
Estimate the return on a pool.bitcoin.com contract: http://www.greywyvern.com/code/javascri ... itcoincalc

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