Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sat Oct 02, 2021 12:02 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 04 - 08, 2021


EUR/USD: Bears' New Win
EURUSD 04.11.jpg
EUR/USD fell to 1.1562 last week, breaking through the key support level of 1.1630, which separated the bullish trend that began in March 2020 from the bearish trend.

September turned out to be the worst month for the US stock market, allowing the dollar to strengthen its position as a safe-haven asset. In addition, the Fed made it clear at its last meeting that it may be ready to begin a soft rollback of the monetary stimulus (QE) program in November. After that, the DXY dollar index posted its best monthly gain this year.

Things could have changed last Thursday. The US ended its fiscal year on September 30, and as of October 01, the country must live under a new budget, which is still not there. If President Biden had not signed legislation before midnight to increase the national debt limit, it would have threatened not only with the suspension of U.S. government, but also with a potential default. However, Biden approved lifting the limit at the very last moment, but only until December 3.

Amid the intrigue with government debt, the market hardly reacted to the contradictory US macro statistics, although the news from the labour market was not the most gratifying. For example, initial applications for unemployment benefits rose from 351,000 to 362,000, against the forecast decline to 335,000. The PMI index of Chicago in September fell from 66.8 to 64.7 points (against the forecast of 65 points). But the US GDP for the Q2 grew by 6.7% and turned out to be better than the forecast by 0.1%.

Governors of Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic remained cautious last week, leaving their escape routes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to members of the Senate, said once again that the acceleration of inflation should be replaced by its slowdown. The strong rise in prices, he said, is “driven by supply chain problems” that his department cannot control.

Almost the same statement was made by ECB Governor Christine Lagarde on Tuesday 28 September. She warned market participants against overreacting to the acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, considering the phenomenon a temporary factor.

Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in September, the highest level in 13 years, according to Eurostat data. As for inflation in Germany, the main locomotive of the EU, it peaked in 29 years at 4.1%. According to preliminary forecasts, inflation in the Eurozone will approach 4% in Q4 and remain above 2% in the first half of 2022. According to analysts, such an increase is most likely caused by a sharp jump in energy prices.

These statistics and the fact that some market participants decided to close short EUR/USD positions at the end of the US fiscal year, recording gains, helped the common European currency a little, and the pair, having fought back from the local bottom, ended the five-day run at 1.1595.

As for the long-term forecast, many experts believe that the euro has no particular prospects. Some even believe that the pair will return to the spring 2020 lows by the end of next year. As for the near future forecast, 50% of analysts are in favor of a further decline in the pair. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 (15% give signals that the pair is oversold). 20% vote for the sideways trend, and the remaining 30% of experts vote for the growth of the pair.

Support levels are 1.1560, 1.1500 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

Of the events to come, note the release of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday October 05. Eurozone retail sales will be available on the following day, October 06. The ADP U.S. private employment report will also be released on that day, and another piece of data from the American labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs US Fed

Last week ended with a bearish win for the GBP/USD pair as well. After starting at 1.3670 and losing 260 points, it bottomed at 1.3410 on Wednesday September 29. This was followed by a fairly powerful rebound and a finish at 1.3545.

Due to the US government debt situation, the market hardly paid attention to the encouraging macro statistics from the UK. But it turned out to be significantly better than forecast. Not only has the GDP drop in the Q1 2021 been revised down from minus 6.1% to 4.8%, but, with a forecast of minus 1.5%, it was 5.5% in Q2.

However, according to a number of experts, the growth of the pound at the end of the week is only indirectly related to these impressive positive statistics. The main reason is that the British currency has been strongly oversold: it has lost about 500 pips to the dollar since mid-September.

At the moment, 70% of experts predict that the pair will go south again to test support in the 1.3400 zone. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, it still sides with the bears as well¬: 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are colored red.

It should be noted that when we move to the forecast before the year end, the picture abruptly changes to the opposite: 70% of analysts already say that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 1.3900- 1.4000 zone. Moreover, a third of these 70% does not rule out that it can even reach the May-June highs of 1.4200-1.4250.

The nearest resistances along the way are 1.3600, 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810. Supports are in zones 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3185.

According to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First, there is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations in the UK due to COVID-19. UK assets are attractive both in terms of valuation and in terms of economic normalization after the pandemic. Secondly, it is a decrease in political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on Scottish independence. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to analysts at Citibank, are “well placed to confront Fed policy.”

USD/JPY: 112.00 Again

As predicted by most experts (60%), the USD/JPY pair managed to climb to 112.00 after the Fed's QE cut announcement, and even slightly higher, recording a high at 112.07. The forecast went on to say that it was unlikely to gain a foothold above this horizon. This is exactly what happened. Amid a drop in US government bond yields from 1.567% to 1.474% and a weaker dollar, the yen managed to recoup much of the losses at the end of the week and ended the trading session at 111.02.

Recall that unlike other central banks in developed countries, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. Therefore, the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.

At the moment, 50% of experts expect the pair to make another attempt to consolidate above the 112.00 horizon. 25% of analysts are neutral, and another 25% expect the pair to fall.

Support levels are unchanged: 110.45, 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 111.00 and 111.65.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. On this basis, the absolute majority of analysts believe that after the failed storm of 112.00, the pair will return to this trading range, where it will continue to move.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Goodbye Bears"

According to statistics from the 99Bitcoins website, digital gold was predicted to die 37 times in 2021. Interestingly, this amount is 2.65 times higher than in 2020, during which BTC “passed away” only 14 times.

99Bitcoins has acted as the official repository for all bitcoin obituaries since 2010, with precise criteria for selecting such publications. The last registered obituary dates from September 21, 2021 and was written by renowned economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, who stated that bitcoin is a highly speculative zero-value asset.

Another obituary may soon be registered, this one authored by entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. The other day, this best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” projected a “giant stock market collapse” due in October. The same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin, he said. The main reason for Kiyosaki's upcoming collapse is the Fed, which has started to sell too many Treasury bonds.

Another unhappy forecast was given by an analyst under the nickname PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model predicts the value of bitcoin based on the ratio of the asset's total available supply and its annual increase. Calculations by PlanB have recently showed that the bitcoin rate will exceed $100,000 at the end of this year. And now things have changed for the worse: according to the analyst, the price of the flagship coin could drop to $30,000 instead of rising.

Indeed, bitcoin dynamics did not bode well for the crypto market in September, with the BTC/USD pair falling to $39,666. However, the first day of October changed everything¬: bitcoin flew up, rising to $48,250. We have repeatedly noted the correlation between the stock and crypto markets, which is based on the risk appetite of investors. This time, too, the rise in the price of digital assets occurred in parallel with the rise of stock indices such as the S&P500 and Dow Jones.

An additional impetus for bitcoin could have been given by a surge in the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges. According to analyst Joseph Edwards of London-based firm Enigma Securities, derivatives trading often affects BTC spot prices. Another impetus may have been the decision by Iranian authorities to lift the ban on cryptocurrency mining.

Famous trader hailed the rise of the major cryptocurrency, exclaiming: “Goodbye bears “, and pointed to the move of leading altcoins into the green zone.

Another trader, billionaire Steven A. Cohen, owner of hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, saw a perfect scenario for bitcoin that could steer it into future rallies. Cohen believes that BTC may still decline, while it is important its price doesn't fall below the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). This will be the key to creating bullish momentum that will push the the coin up to $64,000.

The 20-week SMA, coupled with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), is what Cowen calls the "bull market support band." In his view, it is crucial for bitcoin to stay above this band, as history shows that BTC tends to break through the first time it is retested.

The total crypto market capitalization rose again above the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion on October 01 and stands at $2.06 trillion ($1.84 trillion a week ago). But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 27 points.

And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. So what does it take to make money on cryptocurrencies? It turns out it's all about getting a hamster and giving it a chance to... trade. Over the past three months, the value of the portfolio of Mr. Goxx - a crypto trader hamster on the Twitch platform - has increased by 30%. Over the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund assets fell 2%.

The hamster's owner built a special cage for it in June 2021, equipped with optical sensors that are connected to the Arduino Nano controller. Turning the running wheel, Mr. Goxx "selects" a specific cryptocurrency for trading. The program will sell the coin when the rodent runs through the left tunnel and will buy it if it passes through the right one.

The talented hamster managed to outperform not only Berkshire Hathaway, but also the S&P 500 (+6% over the same period) and NASDAQ 100 (+12%), as well as bitcoin itself (+23%).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:51 pm

September Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders Profit Neared 550,000 USD
September Results News.jpg
NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from India, account No.1584XXX, earning almost USD 300,000, or USD 291,944 to be exact. As the analysis shows, the main trading instruments of the leaders are still the pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD). The winner of the September rating used a number of other pairs as well, such as EUR/NZD, for example.

The second place on the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No. 1397XXX. Their result was almost half that of the leader, but still amounted to an impressive USD 159,241, and was obtained for the same volatile pairs including the British currency: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

A trader from Vietnam, account No.1499XXX, who ranked third, used the GBP/JPY pair heavily as well. Their profit at the end of the month amounted to USD 93.610.

The passive investment services:
- CopyTrading has changed its leader. It is the aggressive SHASK VN signal broadcast from Vietnam now. It showed a yield of 435% on deals with oil (72% of the total) and with gold (21%), in the last three days of September alone. At the same time, the maximum drawdown during the lifetime of the signal was close to 63% of the deposit, making subscribing to it a high-risk event.

As for the leader of July-August, BangBigBosStop1, the first autumn month was not very successful for it. It suffered a loss of 6% in September. There is nothing critical about it, though, as the total profit for the five months is 668%. However, despite the advantages of this signal, the maximum drawdown of 58% also makes it a high-risk group.
As for less risky but also less profitable signals, one might look at KennyFXpro-The Compass, for example. This signal has shown a gain of 135% with a drawdown of around 29% since last November.

- Judging by the title, the same author acts as a manager for NordFX PAMM service as well. Using the nickname KennyFXpro-The Multi 3000 EA, they have increased their capital there by 42% with a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other, even less risky offers in the PAMM service. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 exceeded 26% over six months with a maximum drawdown of about 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, USD 8,710, was credited in September to a partner from India, account No.1258ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received USD 6,384;
- and, finally, their colleague from China (account No.1336XXX) closes the top three, earning USD 5,992 in commission.

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:24 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 05.10.jpg
- The United States will hold a meeting with representatives from 30 countries to jointly fight cybercrime and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies, US President Joe Biden said. It is not specified which specific states are in question.
The Biden administration has identified tracking cryptocurrency transactions as a possible option to combat ransomware. This happened after several cyberattacks on major US companies.

- ESET has released a list of countries with the highest rate of cryptocurrency related cyber threats. Russia comes first, accounting for 10% of all cases detected. Peru comes second with 6.8% of threats, third is the United States responsible for 5.3% of threats.
At the same time, the total number of cryptocurrency threats detected by ESET has decreased by 23.6%. Experts have noticed that this dynamic is directly linked to cryptocurrency prices: the threats have decreased significantly since the collapse of the quotes last May.
In addition to mining malware, cryptocurrency investment fraud schemes are gaining popularity, where scammers lure their victims to fake investment sites or impersonate governmental bodies or celebrities.
Victims of such schemes lost at least $80 million from October 2020 to May 2021, according to the Federal Trade Commission of the United States. Meanwhile, according to Chainalysis, the financial pyramid Finiko with Russian roots alone collected $800 million worth of cryptocurrency from Eastern Europeans.

- Well-known Canadian entrepreneur, investor and TV show host Kevin O'Leary said that he now has more cryptocurrency in his portfolio than gold. “Gold takes 5% in my portfolio and cryptocurrency has bypassed it for the first time. But this does not mean that I will sell all the gold, since I do not see the point in this yet. The crypto sector offers not only speculation on the BTC rate now, but there are many other ways to invest as well. And I plan to become an investor in this field.”
Cryptocurrencies currently account for 7% of his portfolio, O'Leary said. At the same time, he said that while gold and bitcoin are often opposed, having both assets in your portfolio is a good idea.

- Chivo public cryptocurrency wallet users in El Salvador will receive a discount on their car fuel if they pay in bitcoin. The announcement was made by the country's president, Nayib Bukele.
“State-owned Chivo negotiated with major fuel companies to sell every gallon of gasoline through a crypto wallet for $0.20 cheaper from October 1," he wrote. According to Bukele, the measure “reverses several increases in global fuel prices.”
Users expressed their doubts about the usefulness of such a step in their comments: “These 20 cents will come from all of us, right? The filling stations will not lose, they will be reimbursed from the taxes we paid, including the taxes of those who walk. "

- Former CIA and US National Security Agency official Edward Snowden, who escaped to Russia, said the Chinese government's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry “has only strengthened bitcoin."
Snowden recalled his own entry from March 2020 about the desire to buy the first cryptocurrency and noted the tenfold growth of the asset since then. “It [bitcoin] has grown about tenfold since then, despite a coordinated global campaign by governments to undermine public understanding and support of cryptocurrencies,” wrote the former special agent.

- Chief strategist at CoinShares Meltem Demirors investment company said in a comment to CNBC that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will soar to $100,000 by the end of 2021. A lot of cash remains untapped, she said, so investors plan to include digital gold in their portfolio.
She also named the buy-on-rumor, sell-on-fact model as one of the catalysts for price changes in the first cryptocurrency. “We are now seeing a lot of hype around the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF,” explained Demirors. She said “certain movements” on long-term options with six-digit figures will begin at the end of Q4 2021 and early Q1 2022.

- Anthony Pompliano, an avid bitcoin supporter and co-founder of the Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm, has identified the most serious risks to the coin's growth. “Unlike the sentiments of bitcoin supporters, it will not turn into a currency, which means its market will be quite limited. The maximum for bitcoin is the capitalization of gold, which is essentially a store of value. Bitcoin is not used for day-to-day shopping, and while its upside potential may be slightly higher, it is still limited. "
Pompliano also highlighted several factors that may have undesirable consequences for the main cryptocurrency: “It may be revealed who Satoshi is and if it turns out he is not a very good person, this could have a negative impact on bitcoin itself. In addition, no one uses it for specific purposes, such as making international payments, as it is slow and expensive. There is also an option that governments will decide to tighten measures against bitcoin in the future, for example, they will begin to regulate it, impose heavy taxes or even ban and outlaw it. "
A particular risk, according to Pompliano, is that “bitcoin is still in development. It is still being updated, and although the process includes many filters, security checks and more, there may be a bug in the code that is introduced that will cost a lot.”

- Most of the surveyed cryptocurrency investors from Africa stated that their main motivation is to ensure their family well-being. According to Luno's research, almost half (48%) of respondents are willing to save and invest their salary in cryptocurrencies to pay for their children's education, while 43% are willing to create a starter capital for children and grandchildren, 39% for saving.

- Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz told CNN that bitcoin will make fundamental changes to the financial system. He has also urged investors not to pay attention to the volatility of digital gold, but to look at the big picture of the market. “Bubbles and manias are happening around things that change our thinking fundamentally,” Novogratz stressed.
According to the banker, cryptocurrency investors are not just interested in profit, they believe in fundamental changes in the financial system, and the growing interest in bitcoin is associated with the underlying technology.
The head of Galaxy Digital predicted the price of bitcoin to rise to $500,000 in ten years. He believes that 75% of altcoins will disappear from the market over the same period.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:52 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 2022


EUR/USD: First Down, Then Up
EURUSD 11.10.jpg
The global economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this process will continue in 2022. At least. The forecast for global GDP growth of 6% is maintained this year. Growth will continue (unless there are new “surprises”) to roughly 5% next year, according to preliminary forecasts. However, this is an average indicator, and it is the difference in the rates of recovery of the economies of different countries that will affect the rates of their national currencies.

You can see quite different vector behavior of the EUR/USD pair since the beginning of the pandemic. Having started at 1.0635 in March 2020, the pair was already at 1.2350 in early January 2021. The weakening of the dollar has been affected by the intense pumping of the US economy with a huge dollar mass as part of the monetary stimulus (QE) policy implemented by the US Federal Reserve.

With the start of a new 2021 and the arrival of the administration of a new President Joe Biden in the White House, the market has a feeling of greater stability and the imminent winding down of QE. All the more so because macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation and the labor market recovery, were encouraging. The dollar gained muscle and the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1700 by the end of March.

But dovish sentiment prevailed among the Fed's leadership, the pumping of the economy with money continued, the beginning of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program was postponed indefinitely, and one could not even think about raising the base interest rate. And the pair rose above the important psychological level 1.2000 again, reaching the height of 1.2265.

The competition between the central banks of Europe and the United States certainly did not end there. But while the ECB's rhetoric continued to be dovish, the statements of some Fed leaders already sounded a harsh hawkish note. Investors started to expect that the Fed would begin to roll back QE at the end of this year and will complete it in 2022, in order to start raising the discount rate in early 2023. And the dollar gained ground again, dropping the pair back into the 1.1700 zone.

At its September meeting, the American regulator did not announce any specific plans regarding the curtailment of the monetary stimulus program. But, if decision-making dynamics remain the same, the Fed will be ahead of the ECB by about six months.

On this basis, many experts predict the dollar will continue to strengthen in late 2021 and in the first half of 2022. In this case, the pair will continue to move south, first to support 1.1500 and then to 1.1200. Some particularly zeal bears predict the pair will even drop to the lows of March 2020.

As for the second half of 2022, according to a number of forecasts, the US economic situation will stabilize, while the “slow” Eurozone, on the contrary, will begin to gain momentum. A reduction in the European QE program and a rise in the euro interest rate could reverse the trend and return the pair to the 1.1700-1.2000 zone.

It is clear that the dynamics of the pair depends on many factors on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean: political, economic, and in recent years, epidemiological. One other major player is China, which also has a strong influence on the economies of both the Old World and the New World. Therefore, it should be understood that everything said is based on a vision of the situation at the moment, and can be (and should be) subject to adjustment many times over the coming months.


Cryptocurrencies: Virtual and Real Gold

While there is a rough understanding and political and economic justification of forecasts with the major currency pair EUR/USD, things look much more complicated as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. Despite the assurances of influencers, this market looks more like the epicenter of mass speculation over the past 1-1.5 years, rather than a reliable investment platform. The year is not over yet, but bitcoin has already managed to soar from $28,550 in January to $64,800 in April, then collapsed to $29,300 in July, and then repeat this rally, only on a slightly smaller scale.

The rate of the BTC/USD pair can be influenced not only by the decisions of US regulators and the Chinese government, but even the mood Elon Musk has woken up in. One of his tweets can make you a millionaire or rip you to the bone. That's why NordFX brokerage gives its clients the opportunity to make money not only on the growth, but also on the fall of cryptocurrency rates, even without having a single token in stock. Why take the risk and buy bitcoin and then sell it? After all, you can just open a sell trade right away.

Nobody knows exactly how much the reference cryptocurrency will cost. Expert opinions vary widely. Some, like Standart Chartered, see $100,000 by the end of this year, and some predict a rise to the same $100,000, but only by the end of 2022. And some, like the Nobel laureate Robert Schiller, are sure that this bubble will burst soon, burying the two trillion USD plus that the investors have invested in this market.

Much will depend on the recovery of the US economy, the pace of the winding down the monetary stimulus (QE) programme, the prospects for the Fed raising interest rates and the dynamics of treasury yields. These are factors that can severely reduce the risk appetite of institutional investors and return them to more familiar financial instruments.

For ethereum, the forecast of Standard Chartered experts is as favorable as for bitcoin and looks very optimistic. A range of $26,000-35,000 per coin was announced in an interview for Reuters. But that's not the limit either, especially if the bitcoin rate approaches $175,000 by the end of 2022.

According to a report by the major investment bank Goldman Sachs published in Forbes, the base cryptocurrency has the chance to lose its leading position, giving way to ethereum. Goldman Sachs believes that the main reason for the popularity of the main altcoin is the ability to create new applications. And also the fact that many financial instruments can be replaced on the basis of its platform. This includes, among other things, loans and other banking operations.

As for real, not digital, gold, a number of experts believe that this precious metal has yet to run out of growth potential in 2022. They do not rule out that the XAU/USD pair could break the August 2020 record and rise to $2,200-2,300 per ounce. However, the price performance of this reserve asset will also depend on investors' willingness or reluctance to take risks, as mentioned above.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:07 pm

Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:50 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 13.10.jpg
- Financial giant JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has previously repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, promised to fire employees trading digital assets, and called bitcoin holders fools. And now, according to Bloomberg, he smothered the first cryptocurrency to smithereens once again, but admitted that the customers of his holding believe otherwise.
“I personally think bitcoin is worth nothing,” Dimon said at the Institute of International Finance's annual meeting. “But our clients are adults and they don't agree. This is what creates markets. Therefore, if they want to be able to buy BTC, we can provide them with legal and transparent access.”
At the same time, he added that cryptocurrencies will be subject to regulation as concerns grow in Washington regarding stablecoins and the new asset class in general.

- Co-founder of venture capital firm Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, revealed that YouTube removed his channel on the evening of October 11 while on air with popular blogger PlanB. According to Pompliano, this came after discussions about a bullish scenario for bitcoin for the next five years. He later published screenshots of emails from the service, which described the content about the first cryptocurrency as “dangerous and harmful.” Video hosting representatives felt that the channel's creators were allegedly “encouraging illegal activities.”
Pompliano said about two hours later that the YouTube channel had been restored, though "without any explanation from the company."

- 26 Israelis were detained in Tel Aviv on October 5, during a joint operation by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Israeli Police on suspicion of involvement in organized financial fraud in the field of Forex and crypto. And just a week later, all 26 were released, without any special conditions of release.
As previously stated in an official statement by the Israeli police, the detainees provided false brokerage services to clients around the world, thus embezzling $7 million. Users were promised access to forex or cryptocurrency trading, which in reality did not take place, and funds were simply appropriated by the scheme organizers.
And now all the detainees, without exception, were released after a court hearing. Moreover, lawyers for earlier suspects are preparing countersuits against the nation's law enforcement agencies. However, there are reports that two more new crypto-fraud cases involving Israeli citizens are being investigated in the neighboring country of Cyprus.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin criticized El Salvador's decision to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. He stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked. "
“Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit.

- Legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, called bitcoin digital gold and compared his bet on it to buying Amazon stock during the dot-com bubble crash. According to the billionaire, he acquired shares of the tech giant Amazon at an average price of $17 more than 20 years ago. The first cryptocurrency cost him an average of $500 per coin.
“Bitcoin is much less risky at $43,000 than at $300. Now it is recognized, a huge amount of venture capital has gone into it, all the big banks are involved,” Miller said. However, the billionaire advised investors who are not too deeply versed in cryptocurrency to invest no more than 1% of funds in digital assets. Regarding altcoins, Miller noted that the chances of succeeding with more than “10,000 existing tokens and other” are extremely small,” although “Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some other coins will probably exist for a while.”

- Research Institute Capgemini conducted a survey around the world to analyze the current payment situation. In addition, the statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks were studied.
Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the research institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees. Cryptocurrency credit cards will become more widespread. At the same time, the researchers concluded that the prospects for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are vague, due to the ambiguous position of governments around the world.

- According to Coinmarketcap data, Apple Corporation currently has the largest capitalization ($2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and bitcoin is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $2 trillion, and the capitalization of BTC is already $1 trillion.
What can the above statistics indicate? According to the authors of the publication in Freedman Club Crypto News, only that the flagship cryptocurrency has the potential to not only bypass corporations in terms of capitalization, but also entire sectors of the world economy.

- The Swiss non-profit think tank 2B4CH has proposed making bitcoin one of the reserve assets of the Bank of Switzerland and reflecting this in the country's Constitution.
2B4CH was founded in Geneva in 2017. It conducts research on how cryptocurrencies and blockchain can affect society, and what changes they can bring to the financial sector. And now 2B4CH has announced on Twitter the launch of a “popular initiative” aimed at collecting 100,000 signatures to amend Article 99, paragraph 3, of the Swiss Constitution. In particular, 2B4CH proposes that the Central Bank of that country should be able to store bitcoin as a reserve asset alongside gold. And in case of successful implementation of the initiative, Switzerland, according to the organizers of the plebiscite, will become a good example for other countries.

- An employee of the US Navy and his wife were arrested on suspicion of selling classified data for cryptocurrency. This is reported on the website of the American Ministry of Justice. According to authorities, nuclear engineer Jonathan Toebbe sold information about the design of American nuclear submarines with the help of his wife, allegedly to a representative of a foreign country. The latter turned out to be an undercover FBI agent.
The agent sent Toebbe $10,000 in cryptocurrency in June (according to CoinDesk, Monero). After receiving the payment, the couple hid the secret SD card inside the peanut butter sandwich in a pre-arranged location. The agent then sent them another $20,000.
Toebbe hid another SD card in a gum box in August, receiving $70,000 for the decryption key. And more recently, in October, the engineer made another cache with another map containing data on submarines, after which he and his wife were arrested.

- American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.


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Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:45 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 18 - 22, 2021


EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Change?

Having reached a local low of 1.1523 on Tuesday October 12, EUR/USD ended a five-week downward marathon, turned, and moved up. Since autumn started, the dollar has won back 385 points from the euro. And is the pan-European currency going to regain losses now?

The situation is actually ambiguous. Some experts expected a much more powerful correction further north. But it didn't happen: the pair managed to rise only to 1.1624 and ended the five-day run at 1.1600.

The week's data show that the US economy continues to recover fairly quickly, increasing to almost 100% the chance that the Fed will start tapering monetary stimulus (QE) program next month.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 293,000 for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (down 36K against 14,000 forecast). And the number of those already receiving benefits, with the forecast of 78 thousand, decreased by 134 thousand: from 2.72 to 2.59 million. Producer prices also showed an increase, from 8.3% to 8.6% (with a forecast of 8.5%). Year-on-year, therefore, inflation of these prices showed the most powerful uptick in history.

It should be noted that the Producer Price Index serves as a leading indicator for consumer prices. And consequently, inflation can be expected to continue rising, bringing the beginning of the end of QE closer. Especially as retail sales released on Friday 15th October were also in the green zone: ­plus 0.7% versus the forecast minus 0.2%.

And here the question arises: if everything is so good in the US economy, why hasn't the pair continued its precipitous decline? Grasping at straws, euro-bulls are likely still hoping that the winding down of the fiscal stimulus program will be delayed at least until December. This is supported by the jump in stock indices: the S&P500 rose 3 per cent in the second half of the week (its highest gain in seven months) and the Dow Jones rose 3.4 per cent. This index has not seen such a big break in almost three months.

So what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Continuation of the downtrend after the correction? A stronger euro and an upward trend reversal? Or respite in the side channel?

The readings of the indicators on D1 look quite chaotic. Among oscillators, 55% are red, 15% green, and the remaining 30% are neutral grey. There is a lack of unity among trend indicators as well: 65% of them point south and 35% are looking north. The graphical analysis draws the pair's rise to 1.1725, then a fall back and move in the range of 1.1585-1.1725.

As for analysts, 20% favour further decline of the pair, 50% are for its growth, and 30% have taken a neutral stance. Support levels are 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1625, 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

For next week's events, the European Council meeting on Thursday October 21 and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole on October 22 can be noted. The decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate, which will be made public on Wednesday, October 20, may also rock the pair.

GBP/USD: The Victory Is with the Pound So Far

Unlike its European neighbour, the British pound continues to strengthen actively against the dollar: the GBP/USD pair showed a 360-point gain (from 1.3412 to 1.3772) since September 29 and finished at 1.3744. The reason for this dynamic is understandable and lies in the Bank of England's intention to start tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates considerably in the foreseeable future.

As we have already written, according to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First is the UK's success in the fight against COVID-19. Secondly, the reduction of political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on the independence of Scotland. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to Citibank analysts, are “well placed to confront Fed policy”, which is what we have seen during October.

However, once the Fed moves to wind down its QE programme, things could change dramatically in favour of the dollar. 60% of experts predict at the moment that the pair will head south again to test the supports at 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. 20% of analysts vote for the continuation of the upward trend (resistance levels and targets of bulls 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000). And 20% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, predict a sideways trend.

Among the indicators, a significant advantage is still on the side of the green. 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators indicate the continuation of the uptrend on the daily timeframe. 25% of oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, and 15% are in a neutral position.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, attention should be paid to such an important measure of inflation as the UK CPI (due on Wednesday October 20), as well as Markit's UK services PMI to be released on Friday October 22.

USD/JPY: Per Aspera Ad Astra
USDJPY 18.10.jpg
There is such an expression in Latin, Per aspera ad astra, the authorship is attributed to the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Anna Seneca. It literally translates as "Through hardships to the stars” and means "Through difficulties to victory." This is exactly what the USD/JPY bulls won.

Most experts expected that they would not calm down until they took the 112.00 height by storm. And now, finally, their months-long efforts have succeeded. And in a great way. After jumping 222 points over the week, the pair reached a height of 114.45 on Friday October 15, and the last chord was slightly lower at 114.21, near the upper limit of the trade range since the beginning of 2017.

Such a fiasco of the Japanese currency is fully consistent with its role as a haven currency and reflects a stable inverse relationship between its rate and the demand for risks. The growing interest of investors in the American and Japanese stock markets (the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 grew in parallel with the S&P 500) dealt a strong blow to the yen. A pullback in energy prices, which the country mostly imports, supported the market's appetite for Japanese stocks as well.

According to Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, the weak yen supports exporters, but inflates import costs for a number of companies and consumers. At the same time, he said that the stability in the Forex market is important for the government, and it closely monitors the impact of exchange rates on the Japanese economy. But the minister refused to comment directly on the current situation.

However, the yen's fall in two weeks of October looks too fast against the background of the dynamics of the last five months. And this could be the reason for a strong correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south. So 70% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the 111.00-112.00 zone within the next three to five weeks. However, the bulls will have the advantage in the short term. According to 55% of experts, the continued interest of investors in the stock market could lead to further weakening of the Japanese currency.

At the time of writing this review, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 indicate further growth in the pair. 25% of oscillators signal that it is overbought and a possible correction. The resistance levels are 114.55 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.80, 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC's New Target Is $68,000

China-related news almost reversed the bitcoin trend south again on Wednesday, October 13. Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has announced, following other exchanges, that it will stop serving Chinese clients and remove the yuan from the list of supported currencies as of December 31.

Prior to Beijing's repressions, residents of this country formed one of the major parts of the crypto community, with the country leading bitcoin mining. Back in 2020, its share was 50-60% of the global hash rate. The situation has changed dramatically since then and, according to Cambridge University, the top three in crypto mining are now the United States (35.4%), Kazakhstan (18.1%) and Russia (11.2%).

If you look at the map, you can see that the last two of these countries have a land border with China, which made it possible to move numerous mining equipment there. As a result, illegal miners in some Russian border regions have increased annual electricity consumption by 160%.

Time will tell whether China will win or lose from the imposed bans. This applies to other countries as well, some of which seek to tighten legislation in this area as much as possible, while others are very loyal to digital assets. For example, Director of US National Intelligence John Ratcliffe sent a letter to the SEC chairman last year asking him not to restrict the activities of US miners. There is no need to talk about El Salvador, which recognized bitcoin as the official currency.

Interestingly, this decision was heavily criticized by ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. “Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [El Salvador President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit. And he stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked."

The Capgemini Research Institute is also concerned with the question of how widely cryptocurrencies have entered the life of ordinary people. In addition to surveys conducted in many countries, it examined statistics from the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks.

Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees.

If the world's leading powers don't start chasing bitcoin after China, the flagship cryptocurrency has a lot of chances to to bypass leading corporations and even entire sectors of the world economy in terms of capitalization.

According to Coinmarketcap, the largest capitalization currently belongs to Apple ($ 2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and BTC is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market at the time of writing the review is $2.42 trillion, and the capitalization of BTChas already reached $1.12 trillion (dominance index 46.24%).

Bitcoin continued to delight investors over the past week. Over the seven days, the BTC/USD pair rose 16% to reach a local high of $62,880. Projections supported by many experts suggest that it will soon test the historic high of $64,810 on April 14. If successful, taking into account the statistical volatility, the pair will reach the $68,000, followed by a serious correction associated with massive profit taking.

However, despite a possible pullback, the mid-term outlook for this pair remains positive. The next major resistance level is located in the $80,000-81,000 area. American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, Kraken experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from the Fear Zone to the Greed Zone in the two weeks of October to reach 71 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:02 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 20.10.jpg
- Scammers launched a series of fake broadcasts on YouTube on the evening of October 18, a few hours before the official start of the Apple Unleashed press conference, in which they invited users to take part in the distribution of cryptocurrencies. Viewers were encouraged to send 0.1 BTC to 5 BTC or 3 ETH to 500 ETH to the specified wallet and allegedly get back the double amount of the cryptocurrencies. The fake stream was carried out on a channel that completely copied the Apple's account, which resulted in one of the fake presentations gathering about 30,000 participants.
Scammers often use YouTube to promote fake cryptocurrency giveaways. As a reminder, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak already joined a class action against YouTube and Google in July 2020 over malicious actions, but the court found that the platform did not carry liability for materials posted by third parties.

- The founder of the Brazilian crypto exchange Foxbit, Joao Canhada, acquired 1 BTC for his daughter on the day of her birth, Cointelegraph tells the family story. “I bought bitcoin for her not just as a gift, but as a way to invest in the new economy. At that time, it was estimated at 5,000 Brazilian reais (about $915),” admits the perspicacious father. After just four years, bitcoin has climbed to $63,000 and the investment has generated a 6,800% return. Now we can only guess what the profit will be when the girl comes of age.

- American software architect and entrepreneur Jack Dorsey revealed that payment giant Square is considering creating a device to mine the first open-source cryptocurrency.
In Dorsey's view, mining should be easier and more accessible to everyone in order to improve the resilience of the bitcoin network. The equipment supply is currently concentrated in just a few companies. For this reason, the creator of Square and Twitter is thinking about removing barriers for miners.

- The city of North Vancouver in the Canadian province of British Columbia expects to provide heat to the city's residential and industrial buildings by mining bitcoin from 2022.
Municipal energy company Lonsdale Energy Corporation has entered into an agreement with mining firm MintGreen to provide a new carbon-free source of energy for the district heating system instead of burning natural gas. According to the press release, the immersion-cooled cryptocurrency mining rigs convert over 95% of the electricity consumed into heat, which can be used for heating and industrial processes.
“Cryptocurrency miners operate at full capacity 365 days a year, creating a unique opportunity to provide a reliable and sustainable base load for the North Vancouver district heating system,” the statement said. Per 1 MW, the use of mining will prevent up to 20,000 tons of greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere.

- Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, calling the digital asset market an economic bubble. And now he is exploring the possibility of opening a short position in cryptocurrency. This short-run specialist asked his Twitter followers how to do this.
“Okay, I haven't done this before, how can you short on cryptocurrency? Do you need to secure a loan? Is there a short rebate? Can there be a margin call? “, Michael Berry wondered.

- A favorable macroeconomic environment, good network performance and the approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US will help BTC hit new all-time highs this quarter, according to a Finder poll of 50 fintech industry experts.
The survey was attended by representatives of Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors from universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. According to them, the BTC exchange rate will peak at slightly above $80,000 over the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will finish the year around $71,400.
The levels indicated by these experts were well below the forecasts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg analysts, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

- The pace of institutional participation in BTC has accelerated over the past 5 weeks, which is an important sign of the bull market return. According to popular crypto analyst Willy Woo, the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle.
This analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

- Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers like Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.
Yusko repeated his prediction In another interview with CNBC. He also praised the main crypto asset as superior to gold due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins. “This is a classic supply and demand option. One of the nice things about bitcoin as an asset is that it has a limited supply. We know how many bitcoins will be mined every day for the next 140 years."
By the time BTC reaches the $250,000 mark, Jusko says, its market cap will be equal to that of gold.

- One of the first bitcoin investors, billionaire and CEO of venture capital firm Social Capital, Chamat Palihapitiya, believes that the United States will no longer be able to ban bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency. In his view, the cryptocurrency market has become too big for US authorities to stifle the emerging industry:
“You can't just take the $2 trillion capitalization off the face of the earth,” Palihapitiya wrote. “Bitcoin is not going anywhere and is currently too institutionalized. There are already quite a few organized pools of capital within this ecosystem.
I can give an example of a simple high-frequency trading by Jump Trading. They posted several photos of a group of hired newbies and a tutorial on programming in Solana. It was an example of bringing people on their part. Therefore, when there are people with big finance and they are ready to invest money in it, the capitalization of the crypto market will grow to $6 trillion, and then to $10 trillion. This is why Powell and Gensler had to voice that they are not going to ban cryptocurrencies. In fact, they know it is impossible. "
As a reminder, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in early October that he had no plans to ban cryptocurrencies. A few days later, SEC chief Gary Gensler practically repeated those words. And it was last Thursday that Senator Cynthia Lammis spoke in the Senate, saying that digital currencies could help countries like the United States cope with an impending crisis when the state runs out of cash. “Thank God for bitcoin, another non-fiat currency that surpasses the irresponsibility of governments, including our own,” exclaimed Ms Senator from a high rostrum.

- Over 99% of bitcoins in circulation bring profit to their holders. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. According to the published chart, only 0.98% of the coins (about 186.000 BTC) were bought at a price above $59.000. At the same time, open interest in bitcoin options has risen sharply to the levels of last May-April. The increase from September was +107% (from $6.3 billion to $12.2 billion). Glassnode experts also revealed that nearly $325 million is put on bitcoin's growth to $200,000 by the end of the year.
As for the leading altcoin, according to Glassnode, the number of Ethereum investors holding at least 1 ETH in their crypto wallets has renewed its all-time high, reaching 1.34 million addresses. There were just over 1 million of them at the beginning of the year. In total, the Ethereum network has processed transactions worth more than $6.2 trillion over the past 12 months, 369% more than in 2020.

- The mysterious creator of the bitcoin network, Satoshi Nakamoto, was included In mid-April in the list of the 20 richest people on the planet, but his fortune decreased dramatically after the fall in the price of BTC. However, Nakamoto regained the lost ground this week after the price of the first cryptocurrency topped $60,000.
It is generally believed among crypto experts that Nakamoto has about 1 million bitcoins, some call a smaller figure, some larger. The Whale Alert report calls the figure of 1.125 million BTC. Thus, as of october 17, 2021, Nakamoto owns approximately $60.7 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), $625 million in Bitcoin cash (BCH), $169 million in Bitcoinsv (BSV), and $191 million in Ecash (formerly known as BCHA or Bitcoin ABC). In total, this amounts to $60.9 billion.


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Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:12 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 25 - 29, 2021


EUR/USD: In a State of Uncertainty

When giving their forecast a week ago, 20% of analysts were in favour of a decline in EUR/USD, 50% voted for it to rise, and 30% were neutral. As a result, 80% of those who pointed north and east were right. After starting at 1.1600, the pair first rose to 1.1668, then fell to 1.1616, and then moved sideways in this channel. After Friday's speech by the Fed Governor, the pair dropped to the bottom of this trading range but finished almost in its middle at 1.1643.

According to Reuters, Jerome Powell said it was time to start reducing asset purchases but added that it was not yet time to raise rates. In his view, high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but the central bank expects it to return to the 2% target.

The figures coming in the week from the US labour market could be considered positive. This was due to a larger revision of the previous data on repeated claims for unemployment benefits, from 2.593K to 2.603K. Thus, the current number of 2.481K showed a decrease of 122K instead of the forecast 118K.

Such "tricky" mathematics improved data on primary benefit claims as well. As a result of revising previous results, they decreased by 6K instead of increasing by 2K.

However, all this positive has not helped the dollar much, as US Treasury yields remain around 2.15%, while the probability of its growth towards 3.0% remains.

Weaker Markit PMI in German and Eurozone manufacturing sectors could push the EUR/USD pair down on Friday 22 October. But they turned out to be multi-colored. The European index turned into the red, dropping from 56.2 to 54.3 against a forecast of 55.2. But the index of the main locomotive of the European housekeeper, Germany, on the contrary, is green at 58.2 against the forecast 56.5.

The fact that the US labour market continues to improve should, in the end, provide more support to the dollar. Fed Governor Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the monetary stimulus (QE) program is aimed at stabilizing the labor market, among other things. This task, although not fully accomplished, is very close to the goal. Consequently, there is nothing preventing the Fed from starting to reduce monetary stimulus in the near future.

So, what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Whereas 55% of the oscillators on D1 were painted red, 15% green and 30% neutral grey a week ago, the picture has changed now. 50% of the indicators are pointing up, 20% have taken a neutral position, 15% are looking down, and the remaining 15% are signaling that the pair is overbought. As for trend indicators, their readings have also been affected by the sideways movement of recent days, resulting in a draw of 50% by 50%.

The overwhelming majority of analysts expect the dollar to strengthen by the end of the year. But their opinions are almost equally divided about the forecast for the coming week. 45% of experts vote for the bullish scenario, as much as bearish, and 10% have taken a neutral stance.

Support levels are 1.1615, 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1670 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for next week's events, the Eurozone Bank Lending Report which will be published on Tuesday 26 October should be noted. Capital and durable goods orders are due from the US on Wednesday October 27. We are expecting quite a lot of macro statistics on Thursday and Friday, including consumer markets and GDP data from the Eurozone, Germany and the United States. In addition, the European Central Bank will meet on October 28. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference and commentary by the ECB management on monetary policy is of much greater interest.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Last week's GBP/USD chart is very similar to the EUR/USD chart: sideways movement with some advantage to bulls and finish just above the start level, at 1.3758. This stems from the absence of many serious drivers from the other side of the Atlantic, as well as from the statistics from the UK itself.

UK consumer price growth slowed from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, which is a good signal for investors fearing global inflation. However, the market has hardly reacted to these figures, keeping a close eye on gas prices, as the energy crisis is now a major threat not only for the United Europe but also for the UK that separated from it. Inflation is certainly very important, but the country is repeating the path already taken by the Eurozone and the United States, where it was followed by strong growth following a slight decline.

The Markit Business Activity Index (PMI) in the British services sector published on Friday, October 22, rose from 55.4 to 58.0 instead of the expected decline. This didn't help the pound. The dollar, with the help of Jerome Powell, who made a speech shortly before the markets closed, strengthened not only against the euro, but also against the British currency.

Unlike its European counterpart, the pound had been growing since September 29. And this could not but affect the readings of the indicators on D1, among which the advantage is still on the side of the green. Among the oscillators, these are 55%, 25% are grey and 20% signal that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 60% are looking north, 40% have already turned south.

As far as experts are concerned, there is no discernible advantage: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 25% for its decline, and 40% for movement in the side channel.

The supports are located at levels 1.3740, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and bull targets are 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000

USD/JPY: Return to 2017

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair returned to the values of a week ago.

While the dollar has strengthened against the euro and the British pound since Fed Governor Jerome Powell's speech on October 22, it has weakened a bit against the yen as a safe haven currency. As a result, the final chord sounded at around 113.42.

As we know, the pair's performance is strongly influenced by the yield of US government bonds, which hovers around 2.15% so far. However, if it rises, USD/JPY will see a new rise in volatility.

At this stage, 65% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 35% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.45, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, one could note the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on the same day as the meeting of the ECB, on Thursday October 28. However, it is highly likely to bring no surprises, and the interest rate will remain negative at minus 0.1% as before.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: $66,925: Bitcoin's New High
BTCUSD 25.10..jpg
Bitcoin hit $64,850 on April 14, followed by a 55% pullback to $29,230. And now what crypto investors have been waiting for has finally happened. After months of anxiety and anticipation, the BTC/USD pair not only regained what it had lost, but also upgraded its historic high, peaking at $66,925 on October 20. Ethereum also reached its all-time high: the ETH/USD pair was noted at a height of $4,363.

Analysts say the reasons for the current rise are two. The first is the launch of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded investment funds). First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a Bitcoin futures ETF from ProShares, followed by approval of VanEck's application to launch a similar ETF.

The second and main reason for the bullish trend was investors' concerns about inflation. Experts at JPMorgan Chase, the largest banking conglomerate, pointed out that real gold, unlike digital gold, has hardly responded to inflationary concerns. This suggests bitcoin's renewed role as the best capital protection tool for investors and supports the bullish outlook for BTC until the end of the year.

Many other analysts agree with JPMorgan Chase, who are optimistic about the performance of the main cryptocurrency until the end of December. But at the same time, they urge investors to be extremely cautious in early 2020 as the big four-year BTC cycle is about to end. So Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has already thought about opening a short bitcoin position.

Finder conducted a survey of 50 fintech industry experts with representatives from Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors, representing universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. In their opinion, the BTC rate will peak at a level slightly above $80,000 within the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will end the year around $71,400.

The levels indicated by these experts turned out to be significantly lower than the forecasts of analysts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo believes that the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle. recall that this analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers similar to Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.

In the meantime, there is a rollback in the crypto market. The most cautious investors close long positions. Bitcoins are also sold by those who bought them at the spring highs. They have earned a little and do not want to risk again. A glitch in the algorithm on the Binance.US exchange added fears as well, when the price immediately collapsed by 87%. However, the performance of other exchanges and brokers was not affected by this, and the BTC/USD pair was trading at $61,000 at the time of writing. The total crypto market capitalization is $2.6 trillion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index is 45.94%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone at 75 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Oct 27, 2021 6:52 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 27.10.jpg
- Investors committed a record $1.47 billion to crypto funds during the week of October 16-22, and $8 billion since the beginning of the year. Such data is contained in the CoinShares report. The previous record of $670 million was set in February. Amid the digital gold's historical high above $67,000, the total amount of funds in cryptocurrency based financial products reached $79.2 billion during the week. Analysts attributed this dynamic to the successful launch in the US of two Bitcoin ETFs from ProShares and Valkyrie Investments.
As a result, inflows to bitcoin-based funds totaled $1.45 billion, Solana, Cardano, Binance Coin totaled $8.1 million, $5.3 million and $1.8 million, respectively. At the same time, the outflow of funds from ethereum products has continued for the third week, totaling $1.4 million.

- US Senator Rand Paul called fiat money "unreliable" and expressed optimism about the prospects for cryptocurrencies in the global financial system. “Public money is so unreliable! I began to wonder if cryptocurrency could serve as the world's money as more people lose confidence in the government,” he said.
Reporters note that this kind of message made Rand Paul "a rock star in the eyes of young people" during the 2016 presidential campaign. It was notable for the fact that the Kentucky senator accepted bitcoin donates.

- Several email providers were subjected to DDoS attacks, for the termination of which unknown persons demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Representatives of the Posteo email service confirmed the information. “But we will not pay the specified amount,” Posteo said in a statement. “Companies should not allow criminals to blackmail them under any circumstances. Otherwise, they will be even more attractive to them.”
The RunBox service also announced the attack later. And they also clarified that "they have never paid the criminals" and do not plan to start." In addition to email providers, UK VoIP telephony provider Voipfone and game server provider Sparked were also targeted by DDoS attacks.

- Payment giant Mastercard will soon announce support for cryptocurrencies in its network. CNBC reports. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets. According to Mastercard Executive Vice President of Digital Partnerships Sherry Haymond, the initiative will allow banks to compete with cryptocurrency exchanges.

- Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin should bounce off the $54,000-58,000 zone where strong support is located, and renew its all-time high, exceeding $80,000, in November.
Another well-known analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic rise in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this pattern, “we'll be out $98,000 as early as November and $135,000 in December,” PlanB said. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year.” At the same time, the analyst believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

- 150 people have been arrested worldwide as a result of a global special operation against illegal trading on the DarkMarket Internet platform. Law enforcement agencies from nine countries participated in Operation Dark HunTOR. It is one of the most large-scale investigations in Europol's history, assisted by U.S. authorities. Some $31 million in cash and bitcoins, 234 kilograms of drugs and 45 weapons were seized. Moreover, 67 people have been arrested in the US, 47 in Germany, 24 in the UK. Many of the detainees, Europol said, were targets of particular importance.
Europol says the investigation was a follow-up to a raid by German police against the DarkMarket platform, which was operated by an Australian citizen. Moreover, as part of the same operation, several other illegal trading platforms have been shut down in Italy, four administrators have been arrested and €3.6 million in cryptocurrency seized.

- The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins. Bloomberg reports that the pilot project includes 200 Coinstar ATMs at Walmart stores in the United States. Cryptocurrency will be available in more than 8,000 of these bitcoin ATMs in future. The commission will be 4% when buying BTC and 7% when cashing out.

- Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet.
Special smart contracts will enable the client to transfer the disposal of their digital assets to the beneficiary in the event of their death.
The service is expected to have at least 500,000 users in the coming year.

- Popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis believes that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.
Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.
In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

- Former Facebook manager Frances Hogan, who made accusations against this corporation, said that investing in cryptocurrencies allows her not to worry about her financial situation. 'As for the foreseeable future, I'm fine. I bought cryptocurrencies at the right time,” she told The New York Times, noting that she moved to Puerto Rico not only to improve her own health, but also to join her “crypto friends”.
Recall that Hogan turned over tens of thousands of internal Facebook documents to journalists and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among other things, she accused the company of inciting hatred and ignoring teen safety issues. “I have come across a lot of social networks, but Facebook was doing much worse than the rest,” she said. - On Facebook, I have seen conflicts of interest between the public and the corporation over and over again. And Facebook has repeatedly chosen its interests, including to increase earnings."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Oct 31, 2021 1:38 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 01-05, 2021


EUR/USD: After ECB Meeting, Ahead of Fed Meeting

Last time the EUR/USD review was titled “In a state of uncertainty”, as confirmed by the previous week. Starting at 1.1643, the pair dipped to 1.1581, then rose to 1.1691, and ended the session with a new drop, this time to the 1.1560 level.

The main event last week was the European Central Bank meeting. As expected, the interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the commentary of the ECB management on monetary policy was of much greater interest. After the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England outlined the timing of the start of curtailing their monetary stimulus (QE) programs, investors wanted to hear similar statements from the ECB. But… they didn’t hear them: the regulator’s press release practically repeated the previous one of September.

According to Bloomberg insider information, there is currently a split among ECB Governing Council members. First and foremost, this concerns estimating the extent of the upcoming inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde's assurances that the recent rise in inflation to 3.4% is temporary does not suit all. Even more so, they look doubtful against Germany's 28-year inflation peak (4.6%) and Spain's 37-year peak (5.5%). The statement of the bank's management that the analysis does not confirm the need to raise the interest rate in 2022 also looks dubious.

All of the above has led investors to feel that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the Eurozone will not begin until late 2022 and early 2023. Against this backdrop, the European currency should have to weaken sharply. But if we look at the chart, we will see a sharp increase of the EUR/USD pair: the EUR/USD pair rose 110 points on October 28. Surprising but true!

The main reason lies in the macro statistics from the US, which came out at the same time as the ECB chief's press conference began. According to preliminary estimates, US GDP in Q3 will be 2.0%, well below not only the previous 6.7% but also the 2.7% forecast. The growth rate of the US economy fell from 12.2% to 4.9%. The figures tempered investor optimism and caused the dollar to weaken, with the USD index (DXY) falling from 93.86 to 93.33, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 stock indices almost returning to their historic highs. Falling gas and coal prices also played against the dollar, reducing the likelihood of an energy collapse in Europe.

At the end of the week, on Friday October 29, the dollar was able not only to win back losses, but also pushed the EUR/USD pair down to three-week lows. Investor positioning was key to this after the release of the US Fed's report on economic conditions, known as the Beige Book, ahead of the regulator's meeting next week. “With the Fed set to move to reduce asset purchases and flexibility, which is likely to be a key feature of future policy, the risk/return ratio becomes more positive for the dollar,” TD Securities analysts explained.

The dollar was also supported by a monthly gain on risk assets, a rise in bond yields to 1.672% (the highest since May) and good macro statistics from the US: the rise in the underlying PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) remained at 3.6% in September, in line with August. However, the European statistics caused another anxiety attack at investors, showing an acceleration in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP growth.

Despite the fluctuations of EUR/USD over the past few weeks, 100% of the trend indicators on D1 are looking south. But among oscillators, these fluctuations caused a certain amount of confusion: only 40% of them point south, 30% look north and 30% east. There is no unity among experts either. 30% vote for the growth of the pair, 55% for its fall, and 15% for lateral movement. Support levels are 1.1520, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1580, 1.1625, 1.1670, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for important events and the release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be a lot of both in the coming week. German retail sales volumes and the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector will be released on Monday November 01. The value of ISM in the service sector, as well as the ADP report on the level of employment in the US, will become public on Wednesday November 03. We will have such a key event as the Fed meeting on the same day, including the interest rate decision, as well as comments from its management on the US Central bank monetary policy. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and Thursday.

As usual, the first Friday of the month, November 05, will see data from the US labour market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agriculture sector. Eurozone retail sales statistics will be released the same day.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the retail price performance of goods and services that make up the consumer basket of United Kingdom residents, and is a key inflation indicator, was +0.3% in September (vs. +0.4% and +0.7% in August). On a year-on-year basis, the UK CPI grew by +3.1% (vs. +3.2% forecast and +3.2% in August). Although indicators showed inflation slowing in September, analysts expect it to accelerate sharply in October due to high energy prices, utility tariffs and a partial increase in VAT.

The coming week is not only the week of the Fed meeting, but also of the Bank of England, which will take place on Thursday November 04. According to a number of experts, the slowdown in inflation in September is unlikely to force the UK regulator to stop raising its key interest rate in the coming months (now at 0.1%).

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is highly dangerous for the British economy, which is still being pressured by the effects of Brexit. According to the Bank of England experts, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to around 5% by April 2022 and fall to the 2% target as late as by the end of 2022. This is a very fast pace, and the head of the central bank, Andrew Bailey, has recently said that at such rates, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates faster than originally planned.

Many investors now believe that the interest rate on the pound could reach 0.45% by the end of 2021 and 0.95% by June 2022, which is supposed to lead to a stronger pound. However, in the current substandard situation, things are not so simple, and the curtailment of monetary stimulus could lead to a deterioration in the British economy, deepening crisis and a drop in living standards of the UK residents. Retail sales volumes (excluding fuel), as determined by the Office for National Statistics, have shown a year-on-year decline of -0.9% to -2.5% for three consecutive months, suggesting that people have started saving.

The last week and a half shows that the bullish momentum on the GBP/USD pair that started on September 30 has dried up and, thanks to the same factors listed for EUR/USD, the pound ended the trading session at 1.3685 a month later.

Intrigue as to how the market will react to plans by the US Fed and Bank of England to wind down QE remains for now. But it's safe to say that coming Wednesday and Thursday, when these regulators meet, promise to be very interesting, high volatility is guaranteed. At the same time, 40% of experts are betting on the bears winning, 30% along with the graphical analysis on D1 support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position.

As many as 50% of the oscillators are neutral grey. The readings of the rest oscillators are divided equally: 25% for the red and 25% for the green. As for trend indicators on D1, reds win with a clear advantage, they are 80%. Support levels are 1.3765, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3725, 3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

USD/JPY: The Yen Has Its Own Path
USDJPY 01.11.jpg
Charts from the past two and a half weeks show that the upward momentum has dried up for USD/JPY as well. Only if, in the case of GBP/USD, the dollar has been weakening against the pound since the end of September, on the contrary, it has been strengthening against the yen.

The Japanese currency is a safe haven currency for investors. And its recent weakening fits logically into a stable inverse relationship between the yen rate and the growing risk appetite of the market. It should also be added that another trigger for the yen's weakening was the shift in Japan's trade balance towards imports, due to a spike in energy and metal prices. And, of course, one cannot ignore such an important factor influencing the USD/JPY quotes as the yield of US Treasury bonds. However, it is also directly related to the market's risk-aversion.

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair went down, ending last week at 113.95.

At this stage, 70% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 30% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.35, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support levels are 113.85, 113.40 and 113.25, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, the release of the report of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Tuesday November 02 could be noted. However, it is likely the market will react to it fairly calmly. Especially since this event will take place just one day before the US Fed meeting, which will be the focus of all investors and speculators.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High

The historical record of $66,925 set by bitcoin on October 20 has not yet been broken. The imminent correction that followed taking that height brought forward a fierce bull and bear fight. The forces proved to be about equal. As a result, after swaying in the $57,590—63,645 range, the pair returned on Friday October 29 to roughly where it had been seven days earlier, to the $62,000 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is also unchanged at $2.6 trillion, but bitcoin's share has decreased somewhat: its dominance index has dropped from 45.94% to 44.15%. This was due to capital flows into altcoins, primarily ethereum, which rose from 18.72% to 19.61% over the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 70 points (75 weeks ago).

Most analysts believe that the upward trend of the BTC/USD pair will continue. This is supported by statistics. Coin outflows from the exchanges have resumed, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin network hash rate has almost recovered after China's mining ban, which caused it to drop by 50%. At the same time, bitcoin supply is quite low: miners and investors are holding their reserves in the expectation of further price growth.

The macroeconomic background is also favourable. The New York Stock Exchange continues to list bitcoin-related ETFs. True, there is information that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject Valkyrie's application to launch a leveraged ETF. Other of the 40 filings currently under consideration by the SEC, apart from applications to launch ETFs on bitcoin futures, will not receive the green light either. But those that will be approved are quite enough to ensure a solid inflow of funds into this sector from investors saving their capital from inflation.

The good news for BTC is that payments giant Mastercard will soon announce cryptocurrency support on its network. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets.

The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has also turned to the main cryptocurrency and launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins in its stores.

Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin will not fall below the $54,000 zone where the strong support is located and, pushed back from it, will update its historic high in November, exceeding $80,000.

Another prominent analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic increase in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this model, it will reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year,” declared PlanB. At the same time, the expert believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

Another popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis expects that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.

Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.

In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

The leading altcoin seemed to have heard Lark Davis's words. While bitcoin was hovering around $60,000-61,000, ethereum renewed its all-time high, peaking at $4,447 on October 29. The previous record of $4,360 was set back in May.

The ETH/USD pair is bursting up for the fifth week in a row, having added more than 65% since September 21. The reason for this growth is the coin-burning process that takes ETH tokens out of circulation. Another factor that pushed this altcoin up was the news of the successful start of the Ethereum 2.0 Altair update for the Beacon Chain, which brought the moment of the full launch of ETH 2.0 even closer.

And another piece of news that will be of interest for those who think not only about their future, but also the future of their children and loved ones. Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet. Smart contracts under development should solve this problem by enabling the client to transfer the disposal of digital assets to their designated heir in the event of their death.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:51 am

October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer
October Results News.jpg
NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in October 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer1

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1556XXX, whose profit amounted to 169,533 USD. This solid result was achieved in the British Pound (GBP/USD) trades.

The second step of the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No.1593XXX, with a result of 38,124 USD.Their profits were mainly derived from operations with gold(XAU/USD), bitcoin ( BTC/USD), as well as withNASDAQ 100 (USTEC.C). By the way, this is the first time since the beginning of the year when a person who makes trades in stock indices is included in the top three.

The third place is taken by a trader from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who earned 37,116 USD in October on transactions on the XAU/USD and EUR/AUD pairs.

The passive investment services:

- in CopyTrading, as before, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal, The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 75,000 USD in it.

TheSkyAngle signal can also be noted. It showed a profit of 76.64% in just the last two weeks of October with a maximum drawdown of 10.47%. This very good result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/JPY and GBP/USD pairs. However, the signal has one serious drawback: it has a very short lifespan. Therefore, those wishing to subscribe to it should be extremely careful.

Of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, the signal MF989923, which is based on one of the Academy's MasterforeX-V trading systems. It has a lifespan of almost 2,500 days and has generated 510% profit (an average gain of 0.2% per day). However, it must be borne in mind that it has had serious drawdowns reaching 66% on several occasions in almost 7 years of the signal's life.

- In the NordFX PAMM service, as well as in CopyTrading, you can mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They have increased their capital by 53% on their account KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA since january 2021, with a drawdown of less than 16%.

Investors who prefer moderate returns with moderate risk may also pay attention to TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which has gained 34.5% since April 03 with a drawdown of 16.7%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 8,841 USD, was credited in October to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1258ХXХ;
- the next is a partner from India, account No.1504XXX, who earned 4,132 USD in a month;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No.1336ХХХ, who received 4,087 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. NordFX has a Super Lottery for NordFX clients this year, where many cash prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000 will soon be drawn.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:39 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 03.11.jpg
- Film director Quentin Tarantino will present a collection of seven NFTs (non-fungible token) based on the 1994 film Pulp Fiction. Each NFT contains an uncut movie scene and bonus content available only to the owner, including original handwritten pages of the script, Tarantino audio commentary and other details about the movie and the director. The auction will be held on the OpenSea trading platform and will be announced later.
NFT is a non-fungible unique token. NFTs work on the blockchain, they first appeared back in 2017 in the Ethereum system. Secret NFT technology allows content creators to decide which collectibles are public and which are private to owners.

- Burger King fast food chain will give away cryptocurrency prizes to visitors in the United States. The prize pool contains 20 BTC, 200 ETH and 2 million DOGE. it is required to spend more than $5 at Burger King to participate in the draw.

- As bitcoin's math and logic do not allow copying or forgery of the first cryptocurrency, it surpasses the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. He also noted the decentralized nature of digital gold, which allows it to maintain a level of predictability that is difficult to achieve with the US dollar. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation.
“Look at the US dollar, the government can create new banknotes and borrow, it's like it will never be corrected. Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity. Another bitcoin can never be created,” said Steve Wozniak.

- The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it.
“Inflation undermines the income of the poor. Inflation makes the rich richer. Biden and the feds are corrupt. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” said Kiyosaki, who has always been very enthusiastic about bitcoin. “I love bitcoin because I don’t trust the Fed, the Treasury or Wall Street,” this investor said.

- The development team does not stop working on improving the Ethereum network, which inspires experts to make the most daring price predictions. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that now is almost the last opportunity to purchase ETH at a price below this mark.
Among the reasons for the increase in the price of this altcoin, we can consider the recent activation of the London hard fork. In addition, thanks to the latest Ethereum Altair update, a new all-time high of almost $4,500 was set on October 29. However, after this update, network fees have almost doubled, which cannot be considered a factor accompanying the growth of ETH.

- Cryptotrader hamster Mr. Goxx has its own collection of non-fungible tokens (NFT) called Goxx Capital. The tokens are made in the form of animated insert cards.
With NFT sales, the “business partner” (aka owner) of the hamster plans to assemble a new “trade office” for his pet. According to him, the updated workspace will expand the functionality for the hamster's activities, as well as provide more interactive elements for the so-called "wheel of intentions" and "decision tunnels".
Recall that the trading process boils down to the following: Mr. Goxx spins the wheel of intentions, on the basis of which one of 30 tokens is selected. Then the hamster must run through one of two decision-making tunnels: to buy or to sell a token. Mr.Goxx showed a profit of almost 50% in early September. Bitcoin, for example, was only 41% higher, the S&P 500 brought 6-7% to investors, and the Katie Wood ARK Innovation fund was 5%.

- The high price of bitcoin indicates that the economy is facing real inflation, and the rise in prices is not a temporary phenomenon. This opinion was expressed by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Bloomberg writes. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment," Thiel said and expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency.

- It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page whitepaper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. Nakamoto summarized the main characteristics of the first cryptocurrency in the foreword to this document: “A fully peer-to-peer version of electronic money would allow sending online payments directly from one side to the other, bypassing financial institutions.”
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry.

- Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will continue for another six months to a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000, Woo predicts.

- TV presenter, best-selling author and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer said during the Mad Money program on CNBC that he supports investors buying cryptocurrencies if they are aware of the risks associated with this asset class.
According to him, all the arguments in favour of cryptocurrencies are based on the “theory of a greater fool”, according to which there is always someone who is ready to buy an asset for a higher price, expecting to quickly resell it at a profit to someone else. However, when the "fools" are no longer found, the value of assets drops sharply. If people understand this, why not speculate in cryptocurrencies, Kramer said.
“I bought bitcoin and ethereum not for protection from inflation,” the TV presenter admitted. - To be honest, it was a kind of gambling for me. I was just playing on the psychology of the crowd, and I have no idea why the rate of these crypto assets went up. Most likely, there are a lot of overly enthusiastic people who want to sell them for a higher price. I have no attachment to ethereum, but I keep it, because millions of even bigger fools can buy it,” Kramer said.
Previously, he preferred to invest in gold and stocks, but now he believes that it is important to diversify the investment portfolio, 5% of which can be bitcoin or ethereum.

- Investors should invest in hedge funds and real estate, as traditional assets, including stocks and bonds, will lag behind them in the next year and will show a return of only 5%, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. At the same time, the growth of cryptocurrencies is projected at 15% per annum, which is twice the expectations from hedge funds and exceeds the real estate sector with 12.5%.
As for bitcoin, analysts estimate its fair value at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. If the BTC volatility drops by half, the $73,000 target will “look reasonable”.


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Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:28 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 08 - 12, 2021


EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The central events last week were the meetings of two regulators, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Traders were also certainly interested in data from the US labor market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

As expected, the Fed announced the curtailment of $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program starting this month. The purchases of treasuries will decrease by $10 billion to $70 billion in November, mortgage bonds - by $5 billion, to $35 billion. The total reduction in the volume of asset repurchase will remain at the same level of $15 billion In December.

Commenting on the results of the last meeting, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that the time for raising interest rates has not yet come, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then. At the same time, Powell noted that the pace of reduction of incentives can be adjusted at the beginning of next year both towards acceleration and towards deceleration, depending on economic conditions.

It can be understood from this statement of the head of the FRS that the regulator keeps a path to retreat, and one should not expect an early cut in the ultra-soft monetary policy at the moment. This interpretation pushed the stock indices up again, and Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq updated their historical highs once again.

(It is worth noting that for the first time, transactions with NASDAQ 100 (Ustec.c) helped one of the traders to become one of the most productive NordFX clients, earning a profit of $38.124 in October).

So, the US Central Bank is ready to make and adjust its decisions depending on the market situation. As for the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed, it believes the markets are wrong. ECB President Christine Lagarde said Oo Wednesday November 03 that the bank's Governing Council has clearly formulated three conditions for raising interest rates, and that these conditions will not yet be met in 2022.

Investors were not pleased with the macro statistics of the Eurozone either. Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) declined for the third month in a row, and the volume of industrial orders in Germany in September rose by only 1.3%, despite the fact that in August it fell by 8.8%. The growth in the yield of government bonds of the Eurozone countries, caused by their active sale, which reminds the markets of the prospects of the debt crisis, looks alarming as well.

All these factors put significant pressure on the common European currency and led to its fall, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair renewed its October lows.

Focusing on the recovery of the labor market, the head of the FRS outlined the priorities for his organization. Against this background, the dynamics of NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) becomes even more important. This US non-farm employment report is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month, this time November 05. According to its data, the number of new jobs in October was 531K (with the forecast of 425K and the previous value of 312K). In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in September. Stock indices soared even higher against this background. As for the EUR/USD pair, after a correction, it completed the weekly session at 1.1567.

Naturally, most indicators on D1 face south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same could be said about oscillators. However, 10% of them have taken a neutral position, 10% are in the oversold zone and another 10% turned to the north at the very end of the week.

As for the experts, 25% vote for the growth of the pair, the same number is for its fall, and 50% is for the sideways movement. Support levels are 1.1535, 1.1500, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, data on the state of the consumer markets in Germany and the United States will be released on Wednesday, November 10, and the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan will be announced on Friday, November 12. This index is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Shock from the Bank of England

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. These are very high rates, and a few days before the meeting of the Bank of England, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates more quickly than originally planned. As a result, the markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November and... were deceived in their expectations.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England voted at its meeting on Thursday November 04 by seven votes to two to keep the interest rate at the previous level of 0.1%, and by six votes to three to keep the volume of asset purchases at £ 895 billion. Disappointed investors responded to the regulator with the collapse of the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached a local low, falling 270 points to 1.3425. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3490.

Andrew Bailey stated in response to criticism that he misled investors, that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it is not my job to manage the markets." Sylvana Tenreiro, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, who believes that the Central Bank should not react to short-term shock situations and the problem of supply of goods will become less acute next year, spoke soothingly. The opposite position was taken by Deputy Head of the Bank Dave Ramsden, who said that he voted for a rate increase, as the shortage of labor is becoming more and more noticeable.

As some analysts note, there are currently growing expectations that London will decide to apply Article 16 of the EU Leaving Agreement. It is possible within the framework of this article for one of the parties to suspend part of the Brexit transaction if its further execution creates serious economic or other difficulties. That said, the EU's response could be more radical than the UK government expects. And this situation has and will continue to exert additional pressure on the pound.

The preliminary data on the UK GDP for the Q3 will be released on Thursday, November 11. They may affect market sentiment along with macro statistics from the US. In the meantime, analysts' opinion is as follows: 55% of experts bet on bears to win, 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, support bulls, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

Among the oscillators on D1, 75% is colored red, 25% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3470, 1.3420, 1.3380, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Sideways Trend Again

The charts of the last three weeks showed that the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair has dried up, and it has moved to its favorite activity: the sideways trend, limited by the range of 113.40-114.40. The yen rose on the back of the 10-year Treasury yield decline to 1.53% and continued to strengthen at the end of the working week, finishing at the lower boundary of this channel.

The current situation is clearly confirmed by the spread of expert opinions and indicator readings. Among analysts, 50% expect the pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel, 25% to move along the 113.00 Pivot Point, and 25% to fall to the 112.00 area. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the latter increases to 50%.

There is a complete discordance among the oscillators on D1: 35% look north, 40% south, 15% give oversold signals and the remaining 10% turn neutral grey. There is a neutrality among the trend indicators: 50% side with the green ones, the other 50% side with the red ones. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.25, further targets are 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High
ETHUSD 08.11.jpg
It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page technical document described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry. More precisely, multi-trillion, since the total crypto market capitalization reached a new all-time high last week, exceeding $2.7 trillion.

But the share of bitcoin has decreased again: its dominance index fell over the week from 44.15% to 42.84%. The historical record of $ 66,925, set by bitcoin on October 20, has not yet been broken. The bulls did try to update this result on Tuesday November 02, but having reached the $64,260 high, the BTC/USD pair reversed and rolled back to $60,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 73 points (70 weeks ago).

While the main cryptocurrency is marking time, the attention of many investors has turned to altcoins. Ripple rose in price (XRP/USD), and the ETH/USD pair updated its all-time high once again, reaching $4.657 on Wednesday November 03.

Among the top altcoins, Ethereum attracts with its long history and use in many projects. The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. However, after the activation of the London hard fork and the latest Ethereum 2.0 Altair update, commissions on the network have almost doubled, but the developers promise to solve this problem.

The past week is the sixth in a row since the beginning of the rise in the rate of Ethereum, which has added 75% since September 21. This token appears now to be targeting the $5,000 level. And this is not a limit. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that it is almost the last opportunity now to purchase this altcoin at a price below this mark. The forecast of Goldman Sachs specialists, who do not exclude that the ETH/USD pair may rise to $8,000 by the end of the year, is somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it would be unfair to say that the market has completely forgotten about bitcoin. Many investors and experts still single out this cryptocurrency. Whales added 142,000 BTC to their wallets in the last week of October alone, according to Chainalysis.

“Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity” that allows it to maintain a level of predictability. Therefore, it outperforms the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation of fiat money.

The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” Kiyosaki urged. “I love bitcoin because I don't trust the Fed, Treasury, and Wall Street.”

Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor, in his opinion, indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will last another six months or a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000.

The forecast of analysts at JPMorgan Chase looks much more modest. Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. As for bitcoin, its fair value is estimated by JPMorgan Chase analysts at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. However, if BTC's volatility is halved, the $73,000 target will "look reasonable."

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel doubts as well that now is the right time to buy BTC. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying. At the same time, Thiel expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency when its price was significantly lower.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:13 pm

CryptoNews of the Week

[center]Image[/center]

- Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,420 on Tuesday, November 9. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.947 trillion. Analysts attribute the current rally to the lack of supply amid increasing global interest in digital assets.

- The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, so it is not only cryptocurrencies that are in the bubble. This opinion was expressed at the Boston conference by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. “Cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities [...] This bubble is in everything, every asset on the planet,” he said. At the same time, Druckenmiller noted that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is not like the dot-com bubble, which, according to him, had covered significantly fewer people than the digital asset industry today.
Earlier, the famous American investor Bill Miller said that bitcoin is not a bubble, but the asset's volatility is a payment for its advantages.

- Newly elected Mayor of New York Eric Adams called in a CNN commentary on local schools to prepare students for a “new way of thinking” related to blockchain technology and digital assets. The politician noted the low awareness of young voters on this subject: “When I talked about blockchain and bitcoin, young people stopped me and asked me, 'What is this?” Adams called digital assets being "a new way of paying for goods and services around the world" as an argument for including this topic in curricula.
New York must remain a hub for innovation, he said. To this end, the newly elected mayor also plans to oblige local businesses to accept BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a payment method. In addition, he promised to receive his first three paychecks in bitcoin.

- Rahul Rai, manager of the BlockTower Capital cryptocurrency fund, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that, ETH is likely to become the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization which could reach several trillion dollars, as early as in mid-2022.
Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

- Apple CEO Tim Cook said he owns cryptocurrencies, using them to diversify his investment portfolio. According to him, he was interested in digital assets "for a while" and researched this topic. At the same time, the CEO of Apple emphasized that the corporation he heads is not going to invest in these financial instruments and does not plan to launch related services or integrate them as an option for paying for its goods or services.
Tim Cook noted that "there are other things that Apple is definitely looking at." It is still unknown what these words can mean. However, it was in May that the corporation opened a vacancy for a business development manager with five years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry, who is to lead the affiliate program in the segment of "alternative payments".

- Swedish regulators believe that mining bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using the Prоf-оf-Wоrk algorithm will prevent the country and the European Union from complying with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Officials noted that this process leads to the emission of up to 120 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year. This is equivalent to the carbon footprint of 100 million round-trip flights between Sweden and Thailand.
Regulators have called for a ban on the mining of digital assets in such an energy-intensive manner. At the same time, they believe that the use of renewable energy for mining is unreasonable, since "this energy is urgently needed for [...] large-scale production of batteries and the electrification of the transport sector." According to the University of Cambridge, the electricity used to mine 1 bitcoin is enough to drive 1.8 million kilometers in a medium-sized electric vehicle.

- “Purely bullish” sentiment reigns among retail investors regarding bitcoin. This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. This rarely plays into the hands of cryptocurrencies, analysts say.
The market, according to Santiment, has formed an “irrational trust” in bitcoin, which can lead to a price correction.
Retail traders are excited about the potential of bitcoin. As for the "bitcoin whales", the situation here is not so straightforward. On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones.

- Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley created a cryptocurrency analytics division in September. And now it has published a guide to the cryptocurrency market for its wealthiest clients. The bank's strategists conducted a detailed analysis of the various activities, sectors and trends that currently make up the highly speculative crypto industry.
Given that the total market capitalization has exceeded $2.8 trillion, and investors are increasingly interested in DеFi, NFT and stablecoins, Morgan Stanley is convinced that this will accelerate the introduction of state regulation in this area.
Morgan Stanley launched three bitcoin funds earlier this year. The minimum deposit required to participate in them is $5 million for institutional investors and $2 million for individuals.

- The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.
The review published by Kraken also notes that November has historically been volatile, which brings the highest monthly returns. If bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction can be expected. However, the drop will be no more than 20%.

- Assessing the price of the main cryptocurrency, analyst Willie Woo came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, the expert commented, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

- According to a cryptocurrency analyst known as Altcoin Shеrpa, altcoins will not show the expected high results in the near future due to the bullish exchange rate movement of BTC. “Pay attention to the drop in altcoin/BTC pairs if bitcoin starts moving,” he writes. "I believe that the altcoin season has not yet arrived. They will have time to prove themselves, but after the bitcoin rally cools down."
The analyst noted that bitcoin has formed a higher low of around $60,000, and while there is a possibility of a short-term decline, he expects the asset to grow significantly from current levels: “There is possibility of a short trip to $55,000. But I don't care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTС, and when it starts moving, it will be fast. "

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, on the other hand, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,¬” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be possible to show better results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."
While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." "We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation."

- A well-known cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."
In the long term, PlanB sees BTC experiencing a hyperbolic surge.
“The old people have the money now. Real estate and gold are physical, not digital. Digital scarcity is a next generation phenomenon, so I'm sure it will happen. I see in my model (S2FX) that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and cost. Scarcity, in my opinion, is the most important factor causing this linear relationship and forcing people to invest more money."


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Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:47 am

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 15 - 19, 2021


EUR/USD: Rising Inflation Equals to Rising USD

All US macroeconomic statistics turned out to be worse than forecast. But despite this, the American currency continues to grow. The DXY dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six other major currencies, hit 95.26 on Friday, November 12, gaining about 2% over the past two weeks. It would seem that everything should be the other way around. So, what is the reason for this strange situation? It turned out to be the rapid growth of inflation.

According to the Labor Department, the US CPI rose 6.2% in October, a record in more than 30 years. Inflation was higher only in November 1990. Compared to September, the price growth rate has accelerated by 0.8%, while core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) has accelerated to 4.6%, which is also the highest in three decades. And, apparently, this is not the limit. Inflation in the US is forecast to continue to rise in the coming months on the back of housing, utilities, energy and car prices. The CPI, which reflects the change in the cost of living in the country, has surpassed the 5% mark for the fifth month in a row. And this makes us doubt the assurances of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that high inflation is temporary. However, not only investors are in doubt, but also the Fed itself.

According to classical economic theory, the dollar should have weakened significantly in such a situation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned everything upside down, forcing regulators to implement monetary stimulus (QE) programs in the spring of 2020, flooding markets with cheap money and lowering interest rates.

Finally, the Fed reported that it is gradually beginning to curtail $120 billion of the asset purchase program starting this month. As for the rate hike, according to Jerome Powell, the time has not yet come for this, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then.

However, many investors felt that with such a galloping inflation, the Fed's patience could quickly run out and the regulator would be forced to raise rates before the summer of 2022.

An analysis of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives shows that there is a 64% chance that rates may rise even before June. Previously, the market was confident that the regulator would raise interest rates at least once next year. Now the likelihood that it will happen twice has increased from 63% to 80%, three times - from 29% to 49%. And some hotheads believe that the US Central Bank will take the first step in this direction this year.

All these expectations made the dollar continue to grow. It was further supported by the soaring yields on US government bonds. Growing inflation reduces the purchasing power of the coupons paid on them, and there are few people willing to invest in securities, the yield on which covers inflation by only a third.

As for the data on the US labor market published on November 9, the inflation-shocked market practically ignored them. But they also turned out to be much worse than forecasts. The number of repeated claims for unemployment benefits was expected to decrease by 50K, and it rose by 59K instead.

The growing dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair to the lows of July 2020. It dropped to 1.1432 on Friday, November 12 and ended the week at 1.1446. The American currency has gained almost 900 points against the euro since the beginning of this year. And if the situation continues to develop as it is now, it will not stop there.

Indicators on D1 confirm this forecast, pointing to the south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone.

In anticipation of a correction, 40% of experts vote for the growth of the pair. 60% vote for its further fall. The nearest support level is 1.1435, then 1.1350 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be preliminary data on the Eurozone GDP for the Q3 on Tuesday, November 16. Data on retail sales in the United States will be released on the same day, they are very important for assessing the impact of inflation on the country's consumer market. The working week will end with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday, November 19.

GBP/USD: Another Victory for the Dollar
GBPUSD 15.11.jpg
The dollar, pushed by inflation in the US, continues to put pressure on the British currency, as a result, the GBP/USD pair has been falling for the sixth month. It updated another low last week and settled in the zone of long-term support/resistance, where it has been periodically since 2016. The local minimum of the week was fixed at 1.3352 this time, and the last chord sounded at 1.3421.

The macro statistics released on Thursday; November 11 did not help the pound either. And it seems that GDP for the Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, but the growth rates of the UK economy slowed down by more than 3.5 times, from 23.6% to 6.6%, and the industrial production growth rate fell from 4.0% to 2.9% (against the forecast of 3.4% ). Such a sharp slowdown, especially noticeable against the background of smoother similar indicators of the Eurozone and the United States, disappointed greatly, and even scared investors.

The threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

This is a very high rate, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates earlier than planned. The market reaction was similar to the one that strengthened the dollar last week. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down.

UK unemployment data are due out on Tuesday November 16, followed by October CPI data the next day. Naturally, the state of the labor market and inflation will have an impact on market sentiment and the dynamics of the pound. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are almost equally divided: 35% of experts bet bears on the victory, 35% support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position.

As for the oscillators on D1, 85% is colored red, 15% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Treasuries Strike

Giving a forecast for the previous week, most analysts expected the USD/JPY pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. At first, it seemed that this forecast would not come true: the pair continued its corrective movement to the south, reaching the level of 112.70. However, it then turned and soared to 114.30, confirming the expectations of experts. The week finished at 113.90.

The reason for this reversal was the “inflationary” strengthening of the dollar and, of course, a sharp increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, with which the USD/JPY pair has a long-standing friendship. In other words, there is a direct correlation dependence.

Given the soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates will also affect the dynamics.

A number of experts consider the rise of the USD/JPY pair to 114.00 as a return to the bullish trend that began back in January 2021. Although, the charts in the interval between March 10 and September 27 show that in the absence of strong drivers, the sideways movement can drag on for several months. Unlike the euro and the pound, the yen is a safe haven currency, and therefore is able to withstand storms in financial markets for a long time.

55% of analysts currently expect the pair to continue to rise, break through the upper boundary of the 114.40 channel, rise to a range of 115.00-116.00 and renew its multi-year highs. The opposite point of view is held by 35% of experts, and the remaining 10% expect the USD/JPY pair to stay in the 113.40-114.40 side channel for some time.

As for oscillators on D1, 80% face north, 10% face south, and 10% turn gray neutral. Among the trend indicators, 100% are on the green side. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.80, then 113.40, 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

Monday, November 15, can be noted in the calendar for the coming week. Data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 will be published on this day, and, according to forecasts, this important indicator will decrease from + 0.5% to -0.2%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $668,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, climbing to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 73 to 84, entering the Extreme Greed zone, indicating that the main cryptocurrency was heavily overbought, and a correction was needed. Which then followed: setting a record, the BTC/USD pair turned around and rolled back into the $63,000-64,000 zone.

With regard to bitcoin, the sentiment among retail investors is "extremely bullish". This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. But the situation is not so clear-cut among the "bitcoin whales". On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones, protecting bitcoin from a sharp drop.

The correction that took place on November 10 was only about 8.5%. "Only", because with the typical volatility of bitcoin, this is not much. The current situation can be defined as "irrational confidence" in this coin on the part of investors, which can lead to a much stronger price correction.

The specialists of the Kraken crypto exchange agree with this. The review they published notes that November has historically been volatile, resulting in the highest monthly returns. But if bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected, meaning the BTC/USD pair could drop to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa calls the same figure. “There is the possibility of a short-term hike to $ 55,000,” he writes. “But I don’t care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTC, and when it starts to move up, it will be rapid."

Another well-known expert, Willie Woo, came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, he said, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, and the US has currently seen a record rise in consumer prices, which is a strong argument in favor of the flagship cryptocurrency. Despite the curtailment of the QE program and the expectation of an increase in interest rates, signs of a possible sharp devaluation of the dollar frighten investors, forcing them to invest in alternative assets in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. As a result, both BTC and stock indices update their historical highs over and over again. And forecasts for bitcoin will be in the green zone until the US Federal Reserve moves on to a broader tightening of its monetary policy.

The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.

A respected cryptanalyst known as PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."

Unlike many optimists, crypto strategists Benjamin Cowen, on the contrary, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,­” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be able to show more significant results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."

While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." “We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation.”

Ethereum, the main competitor of bitcoin, showed significantly higher profitability, it grew 6.7 times in 2021. And the year is not over yet. Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization, which could reach several trillion dollars.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

And at the end of the review a warning from the billionaire, founder of Duquesne Capital and one of the most successful managers on Wall Street, Stanley Druckenmiller. The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, he warns. According to the financier, "cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities ... There is a bubble in everything, in every asset on the planet." And bubbles, as you know, often burst.

“Every event in the world affects a certain amount of security,” explains Druckenmiller. "I try to imagine the world as it is today, and then I try to see if there are any seismic changes and what the world might look like in 18 months. And if this is true, then what securities will be worth very differently than now? I think that many investors live only in the present. It might work in the short term, but it's a disaster in the long term.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:01 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 17.11.jpg
- US President Joe Biden signed a bill to raise $1.2 trillion to upgrade infrastructure without amendments in favor of representatives of the crypto industry. The document contains an extended definition of the concept of “broker”. Depending on the interpretation, miners, wallet developers, DeFi protocol liquidity providers and other digital market players may be required to report the activities of their users to the tax authorities. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.
The document has been repeatedly criticized by representatives of the crypto industry, including the head of Tesla Elon Musk and the founder of the payment company Square Jack Dorsey. Some senators believe that participants in the crypto industry should be excluded from this law. According to others, only miners and sellers of hardware and software should be exempt from reporting to the tax authorities.

- Investing Twitter's cash reserves in cryptocurrencies “does not make sense right now”. This was stated by the financial director of the company Ned Segal. According to him, the social network prefers to invest in less volatile instruments, for example, securities. Earlier, Ned Segal reported that Twitter is exploring the possibility of using bitcoin, but this will require the company to make additional decisions.
As of the end of September, Twitter had $3.47 billion in cash and cash equivalents, as well as $3.94 billion in short-term investments.
Meanwhile, the payment company Square, founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, continues to hold the main cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. “We have purchased bitcoin, and it seems to us that this not only demonstrates our interest but can also bring benefits from a financial point of view in the long term,” the Square said.

- Bitcoin will “easily” reach a price of $500,000. This forecast was given by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, referring to the limited issue of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of rich investors in it. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.
In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

- The US authorities will sell the confiscated cryptocurrency for $56 million to pay the victims of the BitConnect pyramid. The Justice Department notes that this is “the largest case of one-time recovery of losses from cryptocurrency fraud in the United States.”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission said in a statement that “BitConnect Director Glenn Arcaro and his promoters, none of whom were registered with the Commission as a broker-dealer and were not affiliated with a registered broker-dealer, promoted a potentially high-yielding investment into a lending program for retail investors using recommendation-style videos they posted on YouTube. "
Glenn Arcaro pleaded guilty to deceiving investors in the US and abroad, with the participation of whom the scheme managed to attract more than $2 billion. The verdict will be delivered on January 7, 2022, Arcaro faces up to 20 years in prison.

- Apple will inevitably allow payments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future. This opinion was expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of the investment company Morgan Creek Digital, commenting on Apple CEO Tim Cook's recognition of investments in digital assets.
Pompliano believes that cryptocurrency will not be a separate industry, and all tech giants will sooner or later "infiltrate it into all existing assets and industries." In his opinion, technology companies will more actively enter the cryptocurrency industry in the next 10-20 years, inviting experts and leaders from it.
“It has become normal to discuss cryptocurrencies in any society without risking being branded as 'crazy or lost.' Such conversations do not carry career risks anymore,” he added.

- European electronics and home appliance retailer MediaMarkt has been hit by the Hive ransomware virus. According to Retail Detail, the incident affected many of the chain's stores, mostly in the Netherlands and Germany, and the retailer's 3,100 servers were affected. Initially, hackers demanded a ransom of $240 million in bitcoin. But after the company entered into negotiations, the amount was reduced to $50 million.
For reference: MediaMarkt owns more than 1000 retail facilities in 13 countries. The company employs about 53,000 people and has an annual turnover of over €20 billion.

- Chinese crypto journalist and analyst Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the first cryptocurrency.
The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.
Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.
Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.
The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

- An undisclosed crypto investor bought 2.2 thousand BTC coins in October 2013, spending about $330 thousand. And so, he withdrew cryptocurrency from his wallet, which had been inactive for eight years, on this November 10. The investments of the crypto investor have increased 455 times during this time, and the value of the asset has been almost $150 million.

- it was a few months ago that there started to sound predictions that the price of bitcoin could soar to $100,000 by December. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone was an active supporter of this scenario. This analyst is known for having previously accurately predicted a repeat of the BTC run three years ago and a rise in quotes to $20,000 by the end of 2020.
However, there are skeptics among the experts. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” says popular crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

- The authorities of Miami (USA) have decided to distribute $21 million in cryptocurrency to residents of the city. Thus, each of the 442,000 Miami residents will receive approximately 0.0007 BTC, which is about $47.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez explained that he decided to take such a step in order to familiarize citizens with the concept of bitcoin. According to him, creating digital wallets for every resident is a rather laborious technical task, but he hopes for the help of cryptocurrency exchanges. After that, a digital registration system will be created to reduce the likelihood of fraud.
In addition, Francis Suarez stated in an interview with Bloomberg that one of the priorities for the city is the ability to pay civil servants their salaries in bitcoin.


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Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:31 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 22 - 26, 2021


EUR/USD: Closer to Parity
EURUSD 22.11.jpg
We made a short equation in the title of the previous review on the EUR/USD pair: “Inflation growth = USD growth”, and last week's events confirmed its fairness. Strong data on retail sales in the US, released on Tuesday, November 16, allowed the dollar to rally again, and the USD DXY index to return to the values of one and a half years ago and renew the highs of 2021. With the forecast of 1.4%, retail sales in October increased by 1.7% (the growth was twice less in September, 0.8%). The retail control group indicator went up as well, showing an increase in October by 1.6% (forecast 0.9%, growth a month earlier - 0.5%). Recall that this indicator represents the volume of retail trade in the entire industry and is used to calculate the chain price index for most goods.

Investors were also pleased with the data on industrial production and the housing market in the United States. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1263 on Wednesday, November 17.

It is clear that in the current situation the market is most interested in how this or that macro statistics will affect the rate of curtailing monetary stimulus (QE) and the rise in interest rates by central banks.

Thus, the data published last week gave investors another argument in favor of an earlier rate increase by the US Federal Reserve. According to John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the country's economy is recovering at a steady pace, the US has a huge growth in employment, and unemployment is falling very quickly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also added fuel to the fire when he said that the Fed should become more aggressive. If it accelerates the pace of QE reduction to $30 billion a month, this could provide an opportunity for raising rates in Q1 2022. Another "hawk", the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic, believes that the Fed may start increasing rates in the middle of next year. And even such a famous “dove” as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans agreed that “raising rates in 2022 may be appropriate.”

As for analysts, Bank of America believes that rising prices and wages will push the US central bank to raise the federal funds rate in the summer of 2022, and maybe even earlier. The most conservative aggregate forecast is given by Reuters experts. According to them, the rate will rise for the first time in the Q4 2022, followed by two more increases, in Q1 and Q2 2023, as a result of which it will reach 1.25-1.5% by the end of the year.

Unlike the United States with its economic growth, things are not at all so rosy in the Eurozone with its energy crisis and the impending economic war with Great Britain. The preliminary data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 published on Tuesday, November 16, showed the absence of even minimal growth. Well, at least there's no fall.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said speaking to the European Parliament that the increase in interest rates in 2022 does not correspond to the plans of her bank, since the conditions for monetary restriction will not be implemented in the coming year. According to the regulator, tightening monetary policy in such a situation will do more harm than good.

The euro weakened not only against the dollar, but also against other currencies after such statements by the head of the ECB. Great Britain helped the European currency a little. A record rise in inflation in this country pushed the GBP/USD pair up, and it pulled EUR/USD along with it. Two more factors also played into the hands of the euro. The first is the 66th update by the S&P 500 of its all-time high for this year. The second one is the possible resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the appointment of Lael Brainard, who is considered to support a softer monetary policy, in his place.

A number of investors, influenced by the above factors, decided to take profit on short positions. But this only briefly helped the European currency. Having risen to 1.1373, the EUR/USD pair turned around and continued its southward movement, updated the local low at 1.1250 and closed the trading session at 1.1288.

If we translate what is happening on both sides of the Atlantic into the language of the military, then things have not yet come to real military clashes: neither side has yet raised the interest rate. The matter is limited to the maneuvers and statements of the chiefs of the "general staffs", that is, of the Central Banks. Although, of course, divergences in economic growth, as well as in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, are likely to push the EUR/USD pair further down. Moreover, there is still room for it to fall. Recall that the quotes were at the level of 1.0635 in March 2020, 1.0352 in December 2016, and the pair was even below the parity line at 0.8225 in October 2000.

Indicators at D1 confirm the bearish forecast, pointing south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although 15% of them are in the oversold zone.

35% of experts vote for the correction and growth of the pair in the short term, 50% vote for its further fall, and 15% expect a sideways movement. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1250, then 1.1175 and 1.1075-1.1100, then 100 points lower.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, preliminary data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday, November 23. And the volumes of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States, as well as preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter, will become known the next day. And finally, the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) will be published on Thursday, November 25, from which investors will try to understand how strong the "hawkish" attitude among the leadership of this regulator is.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Rate Hike on the Pound

As mentioned above, inflation in Britain hit 4.2%: the highest level since 2011 (it was 3.1% in September). The jump came amid rising energy prices and worsening supply problems. However, the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed an increase of 3.4% (2.9% a month earlier). According to many economists, consumer prices will continue to rise further in the coming months.

The released statistics increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will decide to raise the interest rate on the pound this December. This contributed to the rebound of the GBP/USD pair from November 12 low of 1.3352, to which it fell after the US recorded its highest growth in 30 years inflationary pressure.

In general, the macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom looked quite optimistic last week, supporting the pound.

It became known last Tuesday that the number of jobs in the country increased by 160K in October. This figure is especially important against the background of the fact that the state program for subsidizing wages, which was in force during the COVID-19 pandemic, was completely phased out in September. Many experts expected employers to start cutting jobs after the end of support. However, this did not happen and the labor market, on the contrary, continues to recover. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in the Q3.

Recall that the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, speaking of curbing inflation on November 4, did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates more quickly than planned. And now the published indicators allowed the bulls to seize the initiative and raise the pair to a height of 1.3513 on Thursday, November 18. However, this was followed by a rebound, and it completed the five-day period at 1.3444.

If the key rate for the pound increases in December, we can expect the GBP/USD pair to grow to the 1.3800-1.3900 zone. However, while this has not happened, most analysts (75%) expect the pair to fall further. Only 25% bet on a quick victory for the bulls.

As for the oscillators on D1, 80% are red, 10% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are still 100% red. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, it is worth noting the publication of the UK Services Business Activity Index (PMI) on Tuesday November 23. This indicator, published by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics, is an indicator of the economic situation in the field of sales and employment in this sector. However, it is not as important as the country's manufacturing PMI

USD/JPY: Still East

While the US Federal Reserve cuts monetary stimulus, the ECB has frozen QE at the previous level, the Japanese government announced an unprecedented program of economic stimulus for the total 55.7 trillion yen ($487 billion) on Friday November 19. Tokyo hopes that this measure will increase the country's GDP by 5.6%. As stated, the Bank of Japan will pursue an appropriate monetary policy, closely monitoring market movements and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

“We hope that the Bank of Japan is clearly aware of the urgency of the measures and continues to coordinate closely with the government to achieve a proper mix of fiscal and monetary policy,” the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan said in a statement.

In what way did the USD/JPY pair react to this event? well, actually... in no way. A safe harbor should remain calm no matter what.

In general, the dynamics of the pair fully followed the forecast given the previous week. Most analysts expected the pair to rise, break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel and try to update multi-year highs. This is exactly what happened: the pair was noted at a height of 114.96 on November 17. However, then the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair returned to the mid-term trading range, putting the last chord in its central part, at the level of 114.00.

Given the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. And that USD/JPY will not only reach the 115.00-116.00 range, but will also consolidate there, updating the 2017 highs. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates as well as the yield of American treasuries will also affect the dynamics.

As a result of the backward movement that the pair demonstrated last week, the oscillators on D1 are completely confused: 20% of them point north, 40% - south and 40% - east. There is no unity among trend indicators either: 60% look up, 40% - on the contrary, down.

The picture is similar among analysts. 40% of them expect the growth of the pair, the same amount expect its fall, and the remaining 20% just shrug their shoulders. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.40, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 84, being in the Extreme Greed zone, which indicated that the main cryptocurrency was strongly overbought and the need for a correction that was not long in coming.

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange in the previous review, according to which if the current growth of bitcoin stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected. That is, the BTC/USD pair may fall to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altcoin Sherpa called the same figure. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range ­from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support.

In addition, Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the main cryptocurrency.

The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.

Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.

Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.

The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

Analyst Nicholas Merten is also skeptical about the near future of the flagship cryptocurrency. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” he says. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

At the time of writing the review, the BTC/USD pair is around $58,000, the local minimum was recorded on November 19 at $55,638. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.590 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell by as much as 50 points, to 34, being in the zone of Fear.

The news background is neutral. More precisely, it is ambiguous. On the one hand, for example, the Bitcoin Taproot network was updated on November 14 - the first major change in functionality since 2017. The main cryptocurrency needs to become more efficient, scalable and confidential. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to upgrade the infrastructure. Depending on the interpretation of this document, it may turn out that miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi-protocols and other players in the digital market may be required to report to the tax office. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.

No confidentiality!

A very good reason is needed for bitcoin to rise sharply again. And if it does not appear, the BTC/USD pair has many chances to stay stuck for a long time in the zone ­$50,000 to $60,000, sagging from the maximum by 15-30%. However, the current drawdown does not prevent many crypto enthusiasts from maintaining remarkable optimism.

Thus, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, is confident that bitcoin will “easily” reach the price of $500,000. He gave such a forecast, referring to the limited emission of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of wealthy investors. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.

In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Posts: 372
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:07 pm

Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:38 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 24.jpg
- Latvian law enforcement officers detained a suspect in creating a fraudulent cryptocurrency project, who disappeared with €500,000 stolen from deceived customers. According to the police, the detainee is the creator of the Hodlife project and the token of the same name and operated from Spain. He promoted the fraudulent platform on social media, promising quick profits, and he made an exit scam last June and disappeared with investors' money. According to preliminary estimates, more than a thousand investors have suffered.
The stolen funds were laundered through mixing services, but Interpol employees were able to establish a link between different wallets and tracked the attacker.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis criticized Hillary Clinton for concerns about cryptocurrencies. Earlier, during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, former First Lady, Secretary of State in the Obama administration and participant of the presidential race in 2016, Mrs. Clinton said that cryptocurrencies can undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Digital assets can also destabilize entire countries, she added.
“Great leaders are not afraid of the future. America could be a winner by adopting bitcoin as a hard currency that can be used to stabilize the dollar and reverse the tailspin that began in 1971,” Lammis wrote in response. She did not elaborate on how the first cryptocurrency should stabilize the dollar, but she did mention 1971. US President Richard Nixon completely abolished the gold standard then, transferring control of the money supply to the Fed. It is believed that this has made the economy more prone to inflation, allowing the printing of unsecured money.

- According to research by The Advisor Coach, Dogecoin is the most searched cryptocurrency in 23 US states. Bitcoin and ethereum are on the second (10 states) and third (eight) lines. The fourth place is a clone of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu.
Analysts explained Dogecoin's leadership by Elon Musk's attention to this asset. Tesla CEO invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin back in May. Prior to this, the billionaire reported that SpaceX will launch the Doge-1 satellite to the moon in 2022. According to him, the mission is fully paid for with this meme cryptocurrency.
Dogecoin was worth $0.001353 on October 1, 2020. The price rose to $0.6311 per coin In May 2021, or 465 times. However, by the time of this writing on November 24, 2021, it has lost more than 65% in price, falling to $0.2172.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and CIA officer who asked for asylum in Russia, said that he treats dog-like tokens like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu badly. According to him, many take meme coins seriously and may suffer losses because of this.
Against the background of the growing popularity of such assets, fraudsters have become more active. The team behind Shiba Inu warned users about the spread of fake project groups on social networks.

- Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for inventing the first cryptocurrency. This initiative was made by Daniel Leon, co-founder and COO of the Celsius Network crypto platform. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," Daniel Leon argued for his position.
He explained that before the advent of cryptocurrencies, people were forced to trust intermediaries, which are centralized institutions like banks and governments. With digital assets, this is no longer necessary. According to Daniel Leon, trusting the "code" rather than the middleman is easier and safer.
“When you lend money to your bank, it pays you 0.1%, but when you borrow, you pay 7.73%. Where is justice? To make matters worse, if a credit institution fails, the government bails it out. In the event of a failure of the government itself, it simply prints money: 30% of all dollars in circulation have been issued in the last 18 months,” COO Celsius Network said indignantly.

- Over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.
31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. At the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the assets of billionaire families as a whole is still only 1%. Most of the respondents said that they plan to keep the volume of such investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

- A new report from analyst firm Glassnode showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts pointed out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC, which in turn means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are only building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.
The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also expressed a similar opinion to Glassnode. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.
Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again criticized the decision of the El Salvadorian authorities to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. “Given the high volatility of the bitcoin price,” the Fund said in a statement, “its use as legal tender carries risks for consumers and also threatens financial integrity and stability. Its use also gives rise to contingent fiscal liabilities,” the review says.
The IMF came to this opinion following the visit of its staff to El Salvador. Experts who visited the country recommended that the government of El Salvador "narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulation and supervision of the new payment system."

- A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.
The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the “bottom” of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

- Chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone believes that, despite the temporary correction in prices, BTC will grow in 2022. He said on his Twitter account that the asset is likely to face resistance at $100,000 and the $50,000 mark will act as a support level. “The level of adoption of this young technology/asset is increasing, and the supply volume is less and less, which indicates signs of maturation,” the expert explained his forecast.

- The CEO of the American investment management company ARK Invest Katie Wood confirmed her previous forecast for the price of bitcoin at $500,000, saying that this will be facilitated by the growth of institutional investments. Such a price will be achieved if institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, said last week that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin." “I think gold was probably the best asset to own,” he added. "But bitcoin is simply the best version of storing value..."
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of another investment firm, Skybridge Capital, also expects bitcoin to "ultimately outshine gold." The price of this cryptocurrency, in his opinion, will easily reach $500,000, so one should invest in BTC right now. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.
Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary trader with a personal fortune of $4.6 billion and fund manager of the Tudor Investment Corporation, has also admitted recently that he prefers bitcoin over gold. In his opinion, BTC is an excellent alternative as a hedge against inflation in the current economic situation. “It is obvious that there is room for cryptocurrency,” the billionaire said. “At the moment, it is winning the race against gold... And I would prefer it.”


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:05 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 29 - December 03, 2021


EUR/USD: Panic Named B.1.1.159

The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after Thanksgiving. Let us remind you that the day Thursday, November 25 was a day off in the United States. And since the lion's share of capital is controlled by banks and funds located in this country, the lull comes in financial markets around the world on this day.

So, what happened before November 25? And there was everything, as predicted by most experts. Divergence in the economic growth of the US and the EU, as well as in the monetary policy of the FRS and the ECB, the energy crisis in Europe continued to push the EUR/USD pair further down. The reanimation of the Brexit theme contributed to its fall. As a result, the pair reached a local bottom at 1.1185 on the evening of November 24. This was followed by holiday Thursday and… the markets woke up on Friday.

And they not just woke up but woke up panicked by the news that a new dangerous strain of coronavirus has been discovered in South Africa that may be insensitive to existing vaccines. WHO convened an urgent meeting, noting that almost 100 cases of infection with the new strain B.1.1.159, which has a "large number of mutations", have already been recorded.

Against the backdrop of this alarming news, investors' expectations for an early increase in the Fed's interest rate went down, and pessimism, on the contrary, rose. According to experts from CME Group, if the likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until June 2022 was 18% on Thursday, it rose to 34% on Friday.

Compared to November 24, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped by almost 10%. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes flew down. The markets began to run away from risks. Investor panic and falling US Treasury yields helped EUR/USD bulls to raise the pair to 1.1321, where it ended the working week.

In fact, it is difficult to predict to which of the American or European economies the new wave of coronavirus may do more harm. According to ING Group analysts, it is now important to understand whether the new COVID strain has already reached Europe (which is geographically closer to Africa). This could further worsen sentiment in the Eurozone and put pressure on the euro.

The difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB will undoubtedly continue to influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair. Several representatives of the European regulator have recently made it clear that the central bank intends to complete the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in March 2022. The pair barely reacted to these comments. But the meeting of the ECB Governing Council on December 2, dedicated to monetary policy, may become the main event of the coming week. Markets expect not just words and hints, but specific decisions on the timing of the completion of the emergency PEPP program and adjusting the volumes of the main Asset Purchase Program (APP), QE analogue. Moreover, the volume of APP can be increased to compensate for the folding of PEPP. It is also possible that the regulator will raise inflation forecasts for 2021-2023.

It is logical to assume that the Fed's hawkish policy and the dovish policy of the ECB will continue to push the EUR/USD pair south in the coming months. Goldman Sachs experts predict that the key USD rate will rise in June, September and December 2022, and the Fed will increase the volume of QE reduction to $30 billion per month starting from January. The rate may be raised twice more in 2023 and will reach 1.5%. The ECB, on the other hand, plans for 2023 to take only the first step. Until then, it will be easy to watch record price growth in the Eurozone countries.

However, it is possible that the December 02 meeting of the Governing Council of the European regulator will bring investors some hawkish surprises. Therefore, the most cautious of them will begin to close short positions in advance, fixing profits, which in the short term will lead to further growth in EUR/USD.

35% of experts who vote for the growth of this pair in the coming week agree with this development. The opposite position is taken by 55% of analysts who believe that the ECB will not make any significant changes to its monetary policy now. The remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend.

Indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color. There are 75% of them both among oscillators and among trend indicators. As for the oscillators, 15% give signals that the pair is oversold, and another 10% have taken a neutral-gray position. As for trend indicators, 25% changed from red to green by the end of the week.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1300-1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1230, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, apart from the ECB meeting, the publication of numerous statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone should be noted. These data will be released on November 29 and 30, December 01 and 03. As for the US, we are expecting a speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who held this post for a second term, on Tuesday, November 30, the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private sector and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published on Wednesday December 01. And investors traditionally wait for data from the American labor market on the first Friday of the month, including such an important indicator as the NFP: the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

GBP/USD: Pound Rescue Is in the Rate Growth

The GBP/USD pair also followed the forecast of the overwhelming majority (75%) of experts until Friday, November 26, falling to 1.3275, the lowest point for the last 5 months. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3350.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Lord David Frost, the UK minister responsible for implementing the EU deal, said that while there was a desire to find a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland problem, the gap between the positions of the UK and the EU was very large. The British Government is therefore prepared to use article 16.

As a reminder, the Northern Ireland Protocol was signed two years ago as part of the treaty on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. According to London's statements, it was precisely because of the shortcomings in this document that the country faced supply disruptions and a shortage of goods. For this reason, the British government offered Brussels a new version of the protocol, which European officials saw with hostility.

As for article 16 of the current document, it allows either party to unilaterally take "protective measures" in the event that the protocol leads to "serious economic, social or environmental problems" that persist for a long time.

Fears about a new strain of COVID, which caused investors to flee from risks, are also unlikely to help the British currency. Yes, the GBP/USD pair grew slightly on Friday due to the general weakening of the dollar (the USD DXY index fell to 96.037). But the pound has long been considered a riskier asset than the dollar. And expectations about the increase in interest rates were revised by the market not only in relation to the American, but also the British currency.

Threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

These are very high rates, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates more quickly than planned. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down. And Andrew Bailey told disappointed investors that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it's not my job to rule the markets."

Now, in addition to all other worries, there are also concerns about a new wave of the pandemic and the impact of the B.1.1.159 strain on the country's economy. And we are talking about raising the Bank of England rate not in November, but in December. And this is not at all great: while the probability of a rate hike by 15 basis points was estimated at 75% on Wednesday, November 24, then it fell to 55% two days later.

If, following the results of the December meeting, the British regulator still raises the rate, this will push the GBP/USD pair up. 70% of analysts hope so. As for the next week, their opinions are divided equally: 50% expect growth from the pair, 50% expect a fall.

But the indicators on D1 clearly support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about the oscillators, but 15% of them have reached the oversold zone.

Support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

The head of the Bank of England will make a speech on Wednesday, December 01. Investors hope that Andrew Bailey will clarify the situation with what the future monetary policy of this regulator will be.

USD/JPY: Who Benefits from COVID: Yen Takes Revenge
USDJPY 29.11.jpg
What is bad for risky assets, is good for the yen. This immutable rule worked this time too. The Japanese currency gained 230 pips in just one day, dropping the USD/JPY pair to 113.043. True, it once again renewed its multi-year highs two days earlier, on November 24, reaching a height of 15.514. The pair bulls were hoping this stellar rally would continue. But this didn't happen. We can only guess how many Stop-loss orders were knocked out after such a rapid reversal.

“This is a typical scenario: the flight of investors to the quality of the yen and the Swiss franc due to a new strain of the virus,” analysts from Societe Generale explained the incident.

The USD/JPY pair completed the trading session at 113.112. And now there is an intrigue: whether it will return to the trading range 113.40-114.40 or continue falling.

There are slightly more supporters of further movement to the south among experts, 55%. The remaining 45% expect at least a correction in this direction if not returning to a full-fledged upward trend. The indicators do not have even the slightest hint of unity either. As for the oscillators, 25% are colored green, 40% are red, 20% give signals that the pair is oversold, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The trend indicators have the same discord: 50% of them point to the north, the same amount - to the south.

Resistance levels are 113.40, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.00, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macroeconomic statistics, retail sales data are due Monday November 29, followed by labor market and industrial production data in Japan the next day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Nobel Prize for Satoshi Nakamoto

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange two weeks ago, according to which the BTC/USD pair could fall to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa called the same figure, $55,000. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range ­from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support. In addition, according to Willie Woo, bitcoin is not yet ripe for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs.

Now, after a while, we can say that all these experts were generally right: the main cryptocurrency was moving, relying on support in around $55,500 and fixing the local maximum at $60.030 for all the following days, until Friday, November 26. And there was a panic in the markets on Friday. Frightened by the new strain of COVID, investors began to get rid of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.460 trillion ($2.590 trillion a week ago). And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the fear zone to the center of the scale, up to 47 points. The BTC/USD pair was trading in the $54,350 zone at the time of this writing, on the evening of November 26, having found a local bottom at $53,600 before that.

A report by analyst firm Glassnode (which was released before November 26) showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts point out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC. This, in turn, means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are constantly building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.

The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

A similar opinion to Glassnode was expressed by the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.

Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.

The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the bottom of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

Chief commodity strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone, as well as Willy Woo, believes that the main support is slightly lower, at $50,000. At the same time, according to the expert, bitcoin will continue to grow in 2022, where it will face strong resistance around $100,000.

Founder of Skybridge Capital investment company Anthony Scaramucci expects that the flagship cryptocurrency “will eventually eclipse gold”, and its price will easily reach $500,000. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, echoed him saying that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin."

The same target level for BTC, $500,000 was named by the CEO of ARK Invest Katie Wood, confirming her previous forecast. True, at the same time, she made a reservation that such a price could be achieved provided that institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

So far, 5% is out of the question. Indeed, the interest in digital assets among big business representatives is growing. So, over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.

31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. But at the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the portfolios of billionaire families is on average only 1%. The majority of those surveyed (68%) said they plan to keep the volume of crypto investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

And at the end of the review, news for Satoshi Nakamoto fans. According to Daniel Leon, COO of the crypto platform Celsius Network, the creator of bitcoin should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for this invention. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," said Daniel Leon.

Now the little thing to do is to find out if Nakamoto really existed. After all, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to decide to reward a person who has never existed...

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
Bronze Bitcoiner
Bronze Bitcoiner
Posts: 372
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:07 pm

Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:50 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 01.12.jpg
- Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers in stores. The undisclosed criminals have infected at least 16 devices in electronics retailers Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores.
According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.
The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

- Investors should take advantage of the latest correction in the digital asset market to build up their positions. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. He noted that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate the further growth of cryptocurrency quotes.
“If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. I just think that the risk is decreasing in the current situation. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also washes away some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good first quarter,” the financier explained. Scaramucci stressed that he considers the market reaction "healthy". He called what happened “healing bloodletting”.

- The bitcoin network has processed more US dollar transactions than PayPal since the beginning of 2021. This is stated in a report by Blockdata. The average quarterly for the decentralized network was $489 billion, while PayPal had $302 billion. However, both of these figures are inferior to the average quarterly volumes of such giants as Mastercard and Visa ($1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion, respectively).
“It is impressive how bitcoin, being a 12-year-old P2P network, has 27% compared to Mastercard, a company founded in 1966,” Blockdata experts noted. At the same time, in their opinion, the bitcoin network is "fundamentally" different from Mastercard and Visa. It is more of a "saving technology" than a "spending" and has more options for use.
Experts believe it is realistic that the cryptocurrency will surpass financial giants as for the volume of transferable value at some point. But to do that, it needs to bridge the bandwidth gap, which they called "staggering."

- Option traders are betting on bitcoin decline for six months for the first time since May. As noted by the CoinDesk portal, this situation does not necessarily imply a long-term market decline. The six-month expected volatility is now at historical averages, so options with more distant expiration are relatively inexpensive. Traders can buy put options in the hope of large profits for a small investment if the decline does occur. There is one more explanation for what is happening. It lies in the fact that traders are trying to protect their long positions in the spot market.
The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month. “Demand is particularly strong for puts with a strike price of $50,000,” the trading firm Paradigm noted.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett believes December could be the month of a rally in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially leading it.
According to the expert, the dollar index (DXY), which compares the dollar to a basket of other fiat currencies, could face a downward momentum and give a bullish signal for the crypto market. In addition, Bennett uses a chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (TOTAL). According to him, TOTAL is approaching the completion of the big bullish falling wedge. He also noted the discrepancy between the growing Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the downward exchange rate movement. A rising RSI during a downtrend is often interpreted as a hint of a bullish reversal.

- Imperial Arts French Art Gallery organizes the first ever auction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to personal property owned by Napoleon Bonaparte. The unique auction is held to commemorate the bicentennial of the death of Napoleon I.
The auction will feature: Napoleon's cane from St. Helena, a golden snuffbox, a handwritten letter from Napoleon I to General Bertrand, an official imperial bust of the Empire, a miniature Bonaparte portrait and ivory painting in bronze case depicting Napoleon in the form of Colonel Garde chasseurs a cheval.

- Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, believes that owning bitcoin and other crypto assets is a way to avoid rampant inflation. In a new interview with CNBC, the head of the investment firm called BTC an "ideal" savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.
According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko.
In his opinion, investors should not be fooled by day-to-day fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, which do not necessarily reflect its true value. In the next few months, Yusko said, macroeconomic conditions could become "unstable" and owning BTC would be an advantage.

- 86% of hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform are their further use for mining, Cybersecurity Action Team experts said. The software needed to do this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack. In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection from the users themselves, analysts noted.

- Bitcoin was down $53,360 this week in response to declines in stock indices and commodity futures. The situation is caused by the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus. Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, believes that investors should buy bitcoin right now, during the correction, as its rate will double in a year.
“Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” says Green. He also suggested that concerns about the spread of Omicron will be short-lived, and investors will again focus on rising inflation.

- According to cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen, the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. That is, within the framework of the current correction, the fall of the first cryptocurrency will not exceed 25% of the historical maximum set on November 10. A similar situation occurred in September, when bitcoin was correcting after reaching $52,000. Then the value of the asset dropped by 23%, after which the coin returned to growth.
Cowen added that the support line for the current bullish trend passes at the $51,000 level. Even if it falls to this level, it is highly likely that the price of the cryptocurrency will push off from this level and begin to rise. At the same time, the specialist admitted that false breakouts of this level could occur.

- Crypto strategist known as Smart Contracter believes that bitcoin is almost ready for a recovery. Smart Contracter uses the Elliott Wave Theory, which predicts the future movement of the rate based on the psychology of market participants, which is manifested in the form of waves. According to his calculations, BTC has completed a 5-wave correction movement and is now ready for a new round of growth.
“There are no signs of an immediate reversal yet, but I believe we have seen the final volumes of surrender. In my opinion, in the case of a worst-case scenario, the BTC rate should rebound sharply to $63,000. The most positive scenario is a new historical maximum,” the expert said.

- The subscribers of the well-known analyst known as PlanB, the creator of the S2F forecasting model, agreed with the opinion that the main cryptocurrency will be able to continue to grow. About 80% of survey participants believe that the maximum recorded on November 10, 2021, around $69,000 is not the limit. According to PlanB, the coin is expected to break through the $100,000 level by the end of the year. However, most of the community members name the $75,000 mark. Ethereum, they believe, is able to rise in price to $7,500 over the same period of time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:39 am

Results of November 2021: British Pound is "Favorite" Again
November Results News.jpg
NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The leader by the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1596XXX, who earned USD 207,329 during the month. Such a solid profit was made on transactions with a variety of currency pairs, primarily with the British pound: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Other trading instruments of the leader include EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/JPY.

- A client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, occupied the bottom line with a result of 37,116 USD in the October TOP-3. A month later, in November, they improved their result more than four times, and climbed to the second step of the podium with a profit of 153,572 USD.

- The third place is taken by a trader from India, account No. 1560XXX, whose profit was obtained from transactions with GBP/USD and amounted to 56,254 USD.

The passive investment services:

- Two signals are currently highlighted in CopyTrading: USD Trading and GFS_FX. The first of them showed an increase of 408% in 43 days of life. 100% of transactions were conducted with the GBP/USD pair, which is favorite of many traders. Such a high result achieved in such a short period can attract many investors. However, the maximum drawdown of 47% indicates the need to be as careful as possible.

As for the second signal, GFS_FX, it looks less aggressive. It exists for a little more than six months (196 days) and brought a profit of 135% during this period. The bulk of transactions (more than 70%) is also related to the British pound: these are the GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/JPY pairs. The maximum drawdown was 34%, so those wishing to subscribe to it should also be very careful.

The lifespan of these signals is rather short and is calculated in months. But, of course, there are long livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for about 7 years, and as a result, it showed an increase of 515%. The signal had serious drawdowns several times during this time, reaching 66%. However, this happened a long time ago for the last time, in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable.

- KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 10 months with a fairly moderate drawdown, less than 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the first position is still held by a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1258XXX, whose commission in November amounted to USD 8,447;
- the next, with a slight lag, is also a representative of Vietnam, account No. 1371XXX, with a result of 7, 225 USD;
- and, finally, the third step of the podium is taken by a partner from India, account No. 1504XXX, who received 6,523 USD as a commission.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:58 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 06 - 10, 2021


EUR/USD: Employment and Inflation Decide Everything

Markets are now ruled by two factors: fear of the new COVID strain and monetary tightening by central banks. It is not yet very clear how dangerous the Omicron strain is and how it will affect the economy. Therefore, the main focus is shifting towards central banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve. Thus, 19 Reuters experts have named the difference in interest rates as the main market driver, while 15 have pointed to Omicron.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the US Senate on November 30 had a bombshell effect on the markets. And all because analysts and commentators saw a harsh hawkish attitude in his words. As a result, stock indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, flew further down, while the DXY dollar index rushed up.

The dollar played back 147 points against the euro in less than an hour, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.1382 to 1.1235. However, then the markets calmed down as quickly and, in anticipation of data from the US labor market, the pair went up.

Inflation and employment: these two indicators are defining in the current policy of central banks.

The ECB continues to insist that the increase in inflation is temporary, so it makes no sense to take measures to contain it now. Although some people believe that the Bank's Governor Christine Lagarde's speech on December 02 hinted at an imminent tightening of monetary policy, however, nothing was said about specific steps. Although it would be possible to tackle this problem already. The data on producer prices released last week look frightening: their growth rates accelerated from 16.1% to 21.9% (against the forecast of 18.3%). These figures indicate that inflation in the Eurozone, which has already reached 4.9%, will not stop there and will continue to grow. As for the European labor market, the progress here ­is more than modest: unemployment fell by only 0.1%, from 7.4% to 7.3%.

Statistics from the US labor market look much better. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose less than expected: to 222 thousand against the forecast of 245 thousand, and the four-week moving average of the indicator fell to the lows of March 2020. At the same time, the number of people receiving benefits for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic fell below 2 million, to 1,956 thousand.

But the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was only 210 thousand, which is significantly less than both the forecast (550 thousand) and the previous value (546 thousand). However, this fall does not look so dramatic against the background of the country's labor shortage. Suffice it to say that, due to a shortage of personnel, the number of laid-off people in the United States dropped to a 28-year low.

The unexpectedly low NFP data is unlikely to have a strong impact on the Fed's decisions. There are many reasons to believe that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program at its meeting on December 14-15. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and her colleagues Mary Daley of San Francisco and Rafael Bostic of Atlanta actively support the idea of accelerating this process. And Randal Quarles, outgoing vice chairman of the Fed, considers such fiscal and monetary incentives harmful to the economy. In his opinion, they have inflated demand so much that it has exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and the high inflation is no longer temporary, but permanent.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also believe that the time has come to drop the word "temporary". This means that the inflation forecast will be revised upwards, and the schedule for raising interest rates will become more intense.

Most likely, the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB will continue to put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, pushing it further down. 50% of experts agree with this forecast, while 35% of analysts have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% vote for the sideways trend.

The trend indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color, these are 65%. But there is confusion and disparity among the oscillators: 40% of them point to the south, 35% to the north and another 25% have taken a neutral position.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1260, then 1.1235, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, it should be noted that the data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 will be issued. Increased volatility can be expected on Friday, December 10, when the German and US CPIs, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will become known. This indicator is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Back on the Bear Trail?

The behavior of the GBP/USD pair last week was similar to that of EUR/USD. It reacted similarly to Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate and to data from the US labor market, and as a result it ended the five-day week at 1.3225.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said on December 03 that there are still significant differences between the EU and the UK on the application of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The politician added that there was no breakthrough in the negotiations, and that these differences are unlikely to be overcome before the end of this year.

The GBP/USD pair failed to gain a foothold above the 1.3300 horizon. According to analysts at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the British currency may continue to decline in December, although it will be difficult for it to overcome strong support at 1.3195 (November 30 low). If successful, the pair will open the way to support at 1.3135. For the bulls, task No.1 is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3300 zone. And if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16, this will not be a problem. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

30% of analysts hope for the pair's growth in the near future, 45% expect it to fall further, and 25% have taken a neutral position. But the indicators on D1 definitely support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about oscillators, but 15% of them give signals that the pair is oversold.

USD/JPY: Yen Won't Retreat

The USD/JPY pair went beyond the trading range 113.40-114.40 at the end of November, and, as most experts expected (55%), continued to move south, reaching the local bottom at the level of 112.52 and having updated the seven-week low. This was followed by a trend reversal, several unsuccessful attempts to return the pair to the 113.40-114.40 channel and a finish at 112.80.

The yen is supported as a safe haven currency by investor fears regarding the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain. However, now that the initial wave of panic has passed, this advantage over the dollar is gradually fading away.

It should also be borne in mind that Japan is in a difficult position because the country's debt to GDP ratio is too high. And according to a number of experts, it is necessary to adopt a new package of monetary stimuli, which will put additional pressure on the yen, in order to increase the pace of economic recovery.

Until that happens, UOB analysts believe the pair may retest the 1.1250 support, but the chances of breaking below are slim. If it does manage to do so, it will face the next obstacle in the 111.85-112.00 area. According to experts at Credit Suisse, the pair needs to rise above the 113.70-114.00 zone to implement the bullish scenario, and then overcome the resistance at 114.80. This will be a good start for a move to the five-year high of 115.52, which was recorded on November 24.

Most of the experts (55%) are currently on the side of the bulls, 25% side with the bears and 20% expect a sideways movement of the pair. 90% of the oscillators are still facing south, but a quarter of them are in the oversold zone, the remaining 10% have turned north. The ratio is 65% to 35% among trend indicators in favor of the reds.

The resistance levels are 113.40, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 112.50, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macro-economic statistics, data on GDP of Japan for Q3 will be released on Wednesday December 08. This indicator is expected to move from a decline (minus 0.8% in Q2) to a modest growth of 0.4%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market
BTCUSD 06.12.jpg
There were no significant changes on the crypto front throughout the working week. Bitcoin and ethereum, along with stock indices and investor risk appetites, even went up at the beginning of the week. But it was only a temporary respite. The cryptocurrency market went down during the night from Friday to Saturday, dipping by about 20%. The BTC/USD pair returned to levels ten weeks ago, falling to $41,620, while ETH/USD fell to $3,510. And this despite the fact that ethereum tried to renew its all-time high just three days before that, rising to the height of $4.771.

The true reasons for what happened are not yet clear at the time of writing the review, but it all looks like someone's speculative combination on a thin night market, when major investors are asleep ahead of the weekend days. This version is also supported by the fact that the quotes of the main cryptocurrencies jumped up within a few minutes after the fall. Bitcoin went up 15%, rising to $48,000. It is possible that it was those who were behind this drop that who replenished their stocks of coins very quickly at a "discount" price. Although, this is only a guess.

The President of El Salvador managed to take advantage of the drawdown of the flagship cryptocurrency. Nayib Bukele acquired another 150 BTC, increasing his wallet to 1,370 coins. True, at the same time he complained that he slept through the moment of the collapse for only 7 minutes, so he had to pay about $48,000 per coin.

At the time of this writing, on the afternoon of December 4, the total crypto market capitalization is at $2.2 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted from the neutral center of the scale to the Extreme Fear zone, to 25 points mark (47 weeks ago).

According to Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, investors should buy this cryptocurrency right now, as its rate will double in a year. “Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” Green said.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, who believes that investors should not be fooled by the daily fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, agrees with him. According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko. Therefore, BTC is an ideal savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.

Much the same thought was expressed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. “If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also flushes out some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good Q1," the financier explained, adding that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate further growth in cryptocurrency quotes.

Time will tell whether these optimistic influencers are right or wrong. For example, cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen has recently argued that the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. But it did. At the same time, we cannot but mention another negative signal for investors: option traders are betting on bitcoin's decline for six months for the first time since May. The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month.

And in conclusion of the review, a traditional and not very serious rubric of crypto-life hacks. We will tell you how some are trying to make money on cryptocurrencies. But at the same time, we strongly advise you NOT to follow their example.

Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers... in stores. The criminals infected at least 16 devices in electronics stores Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores. According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.

The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

It is probably appropriate to cite here one more figure concerning the criminal mining of cryptocurrencies. According to the Cybersecurity Action Team experts, 86% of the hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform were subsequently used for mining, and the software required for this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack.

In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection on the part of the users themselves. Therefore, dear readers, be as vigilant as possible.

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:11 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 08.12.jpg
- The collapse of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on December 04 occurred against the background of investors' flight from risky assets and the fall of the stock market. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital Research called general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain "Omicron" and because of the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible acceleration in the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus program, as the reason for the fall in the crypto market.

- Bitcoin is unlikely to have time to renew the highs before the end of 2021 and reach the $100,000 mark after the recent crash. This opinion was expressed by the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan in an interview with Bloomberg. “I think this level can be the goal for 2022,” the top manager said. In his opinion, the growing support from institutions will be the driver, and there are “fundamental driving forces” for this.
Also, giving a forecast for 2022, Hougan predicted an “explosion of activity based on ethereum”. A Bitwise spokesperson highlighted the DeFi, NFT, Web 3.0 and metaverse sectors, as well as the growing potential of altcoins. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

- President Joe Biden's administration has published the United States Anti-Corruption Strategy. This is the first time that such a document mentions cryptocurrencies. “The Ministry of Justice will use the established National Cryptocurrency Law Enforcement Group to focus on comprehensive investigations and prosecutions of the criminal use of digital assets,” the Strategy says. This group will focus on "crimes committed by exchanges, mixing services and money laundering infrastructure entities."

- A poll by Grayscale Investments showed that more than a quarter of US investors (26%) already own bitcoin, more than half of them (55%) have acquired an asset in the last 12 months. 77% of respondents view digital gold as an investment asset and only 20% see bitcoin as a means of payment.
Despite the popularity of the retention strategy, one in six investors sold at least part of their digital assets, 91% of them did so at a profit.

- Back in early June, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced that his country was going to mine BTC using energy from the region's volcanoes. He distributed a video at the end of September talking about the start of construction of the corresponding facility.
However, one of El Salvador's leading ecologists, Ricardo Navarro, believes that BTC mining using geothermal volcanic energy will eventually lead to an environmental disaster. Such energy is quite expensive, and its price is even higher than that of oil. As a result, in his opinion, the country will simply have to purchase more oil. Navarro also insists that "Bukele is not really aware of what is happening with the energy situation."

- The higher the bitcoin rate, the more often it is buried. It is paradoxical, but true: as the quotes grow, skeptics who write obituaries for cryptocurrency become more active. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.
The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation.
Unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain has doubts about blockchain technology as well: “From time to time I dig into the myriad of junk that masquerades as the genius of blockchain, mathematics and computational logic that underlies cryptography. Read it yourself: it's 10% fun and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

- Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss believes that bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the collapse to $42,000. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

- The USA called "Moscow City" a hub for illegal cryptocurrency transactions. Experts of the Recorded Future company, which specializes in cybersecurity, claim that there are about 50 crypto exchanges that are engaged in illegal activities in this business center of the Russian capital. Recorded Future concluded that part of the payments to the ransomware went through "Moscow City", reports The New York Times.
The US authorities announced In September the imposition of sanctions against the Russian crypto exchange Suex, which has offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg. US officials claim Suex facilitated the withdrawal of ransomware and scammers' funds. This is the first time in US history that the authorities have imposed sanctions on a crypto exchange.

— According to Finbold, Americans suffered about $3.94 billion in losses from various cybercrimes in the first three quarters of 2021, which was the highest in history. Thus, cybercriminals stole at least $12.78 million daily. Compared to three quarters of 2020, losses increased by 83% ($1.9 billion). They amounted to about $1.2 billion In the same period of 2019, and $818 million in 2018.

- A well-known investor and economist Louis Navellier believes that a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which may lead to a strong correction of risky assets. As a result, bitcoin could drop to $10,000.
Navellier recalled that a serious fall in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction of risky assets in February-March 2020.
This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. This may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Stan NordFX
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Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:07 pm

Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Dec 12, 2021 3:02 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 13 - 17, 2021


EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings

We titled this section of the review “Employment and Inflation Decide Everything” last week. It is these two parameters that determine the monetary policy of central banks in the current situation. The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on Thursday, December 16, and the markets expect the regulator to speed up the procedure for curtailing incentives, and, perhaps, even increase the interest rate. Undoubtedly, these decisions will be influenced by the macro statistics released in recent days.

The report from the US labor market published on December 09, looks pretty good overall. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was expected to grow by 3,000, but it fell by 43,000 to 185,000 instead. This is the minimum in more than half a century, since 1969. On the other hand, the situation with repeated applications turned out to be worse than forecasted: their number increased by 38 thousand instead of falling by 72 thousand. But if we sum up both indicators, we get a reduction in applications by 5,000, which confirms the trend towards the recovery of the labor market. Moreover, the number of open vacancies has grown by 431 thousand: there is already a shortage of labor in the United States.

As for inflation, the higher it is, the greater the chances that the Fed will begin to tighten its monetary policy even faster. And we are talking not only about reducing the repurchase of assets, but also about raising the key rate, which can lead to a further strengthening of the dollar.

Inflation in the United States has currently reached record levels in more than forty years and, judging by the data released on December 10, continues to grow. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 6.8% on an annualized basis in November from 6.2% in October. As for the core index (Core CPI), it was 4.9% YOY, which is also higher than the previous value (4.6% in October). And the market will be now waiting to see how the Fed will react to these numbers at the upcoming meeting. The head of this organization Jerome Powell and his colleagues convinced investors earlier of their readiness for aggressive monetary restrictions.

About 70% of Financial Times experts believe that the return of monetary policy to the pre-Covid level will proceed quite smoothly, and the interest rate will reach 1.5% by the end of 2023 (it is 0.25% now). At the same time, only 10% of the surveyed analysts expect that the first stage of the rate hike will occur in the Q1 of 2022, 50% are betting on the Q2. As for the complete curtailment of the $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program, more than half of the respondents believe that this will happen by the end of March of the coming year.

The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on the same day as the Fed meeting on Thursday, December 16. We have already written that, unlike the Fed, the ECB plans to take its first step in this direction only in 2023. It will calmly watch the record price increases in the Eurozone countries until then. But there are chances that the European regulator will nevertheless decide to accelerate, following the example of its overseas colleague, and turn from a dove into a hawk. This will be a pleasant surprise for the EUR/USD bulls. And this cannot be ruled out, especially since the hawkish statements of such authoritative officials as Isabel Schnabel are beginning to sound from the depths of the ECB.

This member of the Bank's Governing Council said the other day that asset purchases were an important tool during market shocks and recessions, but the balance of QE advantages and disadvantages deteriorates during the period of economic growth, increasing the risks of financial instability. And the market reacted by albeit short-term, growth of the European currency even to this, in general not binding statement of Mrs. Schnabel.

In anticipation of the Fed and ECB meetings, the EUR/USD pair revolves around Pivot Point 1.1300 for the second consecutive week. This time, it completed the five-day period near this line at 1.1316. Among experts, 75% expect further strengthening of the US currency, 20% are betting on the growth of the euro. The remaining 5% have taken a neutral position.

But the two-week sideways trend causes confusion and discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 60% are colored red, 40% are green. As for oscillators, 40% point to the south, 30% to the north and another 30% to the east. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1265, 1.1225, 1.1185, then 1.1075-1.1100

As for the events of the coming week, in addition to the meetings of the Central Banks and subsequent comments of their management, the release of statistics on retail sales in the US on Wednesday December 15, as well as the publication of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone on December 16 should be noted. In addition, a meeting of the European Council will take place on Thursday and Friday.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

December 16 will bring a lot of excitement to traders: in addition to the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England will also make a decision on further monetary policy and interest rates on this day. The value of the business activity index in the UK services sector Markit will become known the same day. In addition, data on unemployment will be released on Tuesday December 14 and inflation in the UK consumer market on Wednesday 15 December.

The pound weakened last week after the UK government introduced new quarantine measures due to a new strain of COVID-19. According to statistics, the number of infections with the Omicron strain doubles every two to three days. Simple calculations show that with such dynamics, the number of infections may exceed 1 million by the end of the month (10.6 million cases have been recorded in the country since the beginning of the pandemic). The situation is of concern for investors, and therefore they do want to receive information from the Bank of England whether the Omicron coronavirus strain has influenced the plans to curtail the stimulus program.

The bulls for the GBP/USD pair were not pleased with weak macro-economic statistics, which turned out to be worse than forecasted. Also, the pound continues to be under pressure from the consequences of Brexit and significant disagreements between the EU and the UK over the Northern Ireland Protocol, due to which, according to British officials, the country is faced with a shortage of goods and supply disruptions.

At the same time, 40% of analysts still hope for the pair to grow. But if the Bank of England does not raise rates again, their hopes will melt like the morning fog over London. And given the government's position on quarantine, the regulator is highly likely to leave the rate unchanged at least until February 2022. The majority (60%) of the experts vote for this outcome of the meeting.

Pending regulatory decisions, the GBP/USD pair completed the session in the same way it traded a week ago: in the 1.3265 zone. However, despite this, 75% of the trend indicators on D1 still support the bears. Among the oscillators there are 80% of them, the remaining 20% turned upward.

Task No.1 for the bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And this will not be a problem if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. The nearest support is located in the 1.3210-1.3220 zone, followed by the levels 1.3195, 1.3160, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960.

USD/JPY: The Yen Holds Defense. It holds it so far
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If the EUR/USD pair revolves around 1.1300 for the second week, USD/JPY does the same, only around 113.30. The risk appetites that returned to the market and pushed up the stock indices, could not have any significant effect on the Japanese currency, which was supported by the statement of the member of the Board of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki. He said commenting on the COVID-19 situation that if the US Federal Reserve starts to cut QE and raises interest rates faster than expected, the Bank of Japan could also raise long-term rates. According to Hitoshi Suzuki, rates may rise as soon as the coronavirus uncertainty disappears, which will help the Japanese economy continue to recover. It is certainly not worth expecting that the increase will take place at the next meeting of the regulator on Friday, December 17. The rate is most likely to remain at the previous negative level of -0.1%.

The deputy head of the Bank Masayoshi Amamiya tried to add optimism to investors. The country's economy was in stagnation, but, according to the regulator's calculations, it should recover during 2022, even despite the Omicron strain. The official’s comments came after the very weak data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 were released on Wednesday, December 8. They showed a drop of 0.9% against the previous value of minus 0.8% and a positive forecast of +0.4%.

Giving the previous forecast, most experts expected the USD/JPY pair to make another attempt to return to the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and it rose to the height of 113.95 on December 8, although then there followed a trend reversal a finish at the lower border of the channel, at 113.40.

As for the forecast for the coming week, 80% of experts believe that the pair will go up again with the help of the US Federal Reserve and, possibly, even break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Only 20% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario. The nearest support level is 112.55, then 112.00 and 111.65.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are still facing south, 30% remain neutral, and the remaining 10% have turned north. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market

There is still no definite explanation why bitcoin fell below $42,000 on the night of December 04. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the fall of the crypto market took place together with the fall of the stock market and the flight of investors from risky assets. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.

Galaxy Digital Research analysts believe that is not the case. The triggers for the collapse, in their opinion, were the general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain Omicron and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible faster curtailment of the QE program.

Be that as it may but having set a record on November 10 at the height of $68,780, the flagship cryptocurrency is rolling down for the fifth week in a row. And the optimism of experts and investors also decreases along with its value.

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that bitcoin is now unlikely to have time to update the highs and reach $100,000 before the end of 2021. “I think this level could be the goal for 2022,” said the top manager in an interview with Bloomberg. Growth should be driven by growing support from institutions, and for this, in his opinion, there are “fundamental driving forces”.

Louis Navellier, a famous investor and economist, believes that the “driving forces”, on the contrary, are directed downwards. A large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

Navellier recalled that a serious drop in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction in February-March 2020. This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. And this may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.

“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.

Recall that then, a prolonged fall followed after a dizzying rise to $19,270. It lasted about a year and was called the crypto winter, during which the BTC/USD pair lost almost 85%.

A sharp turn to the south occurred not only in 2017, but also in the second half of 2019. And, of course, one cannot but recall a very recent example: April-July of this year, when bitcoin quotes sank 55% in three months.

These bearish waves hit the pockets and wallets of speculators hard and made us talk about a possible complete and final collapse of the crypto market once again. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.

The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money, and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation. Moreover, unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain also doubts the blockchain technology: “From time to time, I dig through the myriad of garbage that disguises itself as the genius of the blockchain, mathematics and computational logic underlying cryptography... This is 10% fascinating and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss, unlike Bill Blain and Louis Navellier, believes that it is too early to bury cryptocurrency. In his opinion, bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the current collapse. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

If, under negative circumstances, the decline still continues, it will certainly attract the interest of long-term holders. Every time a pullback occurs, investors begin to buy out the fall in anticipation of a new rise in price, and do not allow the crypto market to fall into an uncontrolled collapse.

So large bitcoin holders (from 100 to 10 thousand BTC) have already bought 67,000 coins last week. Of course, this is not a lot. Therefore, there is no need to talk about a return to the bullish trend yet. On the contrary, the advantage is still in the hands (or rather, in their paws) of the bears who are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000-48,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing the review (on the night of December 10 to December 11), the total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.215 trillion (minus 25% compared to the historical maximum of November 10). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Extreme Fear zone at 24 points. But the bitcoin dominance index dropped to 39.88%, yielding more and more "territory" to its main competitor, ethereum, whose market share reached 22%. (For comparison, 71.86% for BTC and 10.63% for ETH at the very beginning of the year).

The ETH/USD chart shows clearly that ethereum is recovering significantly better than bitcoin after falling on December 04. And if the BTC/USD pair has grown by a little more than 55% over the past five months, the increase in ETH/USD was more than 130%.

The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. The ethereum network has already burned more than 1 million coins since the activation of the London hard fork.

Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

Director of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan predicted an "explosion of activity based on ethereum" in his forecast for 2022 as well. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

***

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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
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#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:50 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
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- Miners have already mined 90% of the coins from the total bitcoin emission. The bitcoin network has reached the point at block No. 714000 where it remains to mine 2.1 million BTC, or 10% of the available emission volume. However, the total cryptocurrency supply will not be equal to 21 million coins, as provided by the algorithm. Chainalysis has calculated that 3.79 million BTC could be lost forever. In theory, these coins do exist, but they do not circulate.
Also, about 1 million BTC is stored at addresses that are associated with the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto. These bitcoins were mined early in the development of the network and have not moved since then. Nakamoto left his last public message 11 years ago.
Digital gold is expected to reach its emission limit around 2140 as regular halvings gradually lead to a zero-emission rate.

- According to the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange, the number of women investing in cryptocurrency increased by 198% in the first three quarters of 2021compared to the same period in 2020. The highest percentage of new investors are women between the ages of 30 and 35. It is curious that the most successful female investors and traders are the age group from 55 to 60 years old. They tend to invest larger amounts and earn higher returns.
The main reason for this influx is likely the proliferation of information about cryptocurrencies during the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 forced many countries to enter lockdowns, which made citizens stay at home for a long time. It is natural that when left without work, people were forced to look for new opportunities to generate income. In addition, fiat currencies are depreciating catastrophically in many countries.
However, despite the influx of women into what was previously considered predominantly male, gender balance will still take time. According to a report called Financial Tribes You Need to Know, 66% of investors in the cryptocurrency industry are still male.

- The new German government has included cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in the list of the country's main development directions for the next four years. And now German savings banks have started working on a cryptocurrency wallet project. According to media reports, the plan provides for the possibility of buying and selling digital assets directly through accounts, and customers will not have to undergo additional verification procedures.
For reference: there are about 370 savings banks in Germany. Their aggregate database has about 50 million customers, and assets under management are estimated at €1.4 trillion.

- According to IntoTheBlock experts, if BTC does not hold above $48,000, the risks of its fall to $43,000 will increase, and it is only at this level that the coin will be able to find a local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

- Attackers hacked the personal Twitter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They wrote on his behalf about the recognition of the first cryptocurrency as a legal means of payment in the country. The publication also said that India bought 500 BTC and plans to distribute it to citizens. Attackers also attached a link to a fraudulent site allegedly for citizens to receive their share of coins. As of now, the fake tweet has been deleted.

- When the news feed is calm enough, traders begin to pay more attention to technical analysis. And now the legendary trader and techno analyst Peter Brandt warned investors that there is a dangerous double top pattern on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. However, according to a number of experts, this does not mean that the pattern will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.
The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.
According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of any bitcoin at $5,000 or even $15,000. You can simply forget about such prices for cryptocurrency. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000, but going below this mark is unlikely,” the expert predicted.

- Elon Musk was named TIME's Person of the Year. The publication noted the impact of the founder of Tesla and SpaceX on life on Earth and “possibly beyond”. "This is a man who seeks to save our planet and help us populate a new one: a jester, a genius, a provocateur, a seer, an industrialist, a showman, a boor, a crazy hybrid of Edison, Barnum, Andrew Carnegie and Dr. Manhattan from The Watchmen," - this is how TIME characterizes the richest person on the planet with a fortune of $265 billion.
When asked by a TIME reporter regarding cryptocurrencies, Musk replied that he is “not such a big opponent of fiat. But the cryptocurrency has advantages, since any government, whatever it may be, has a desire to issue." “I was instrumental in the creation of PayPal. And there are few who understand [the monetary system] better than I do,” multi-billionaire said. However, he doubted that digital assets can replace fiat. “Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, but it cannot be a good substitute for currencies for payments. In this regard, even Dogecoin created as a joke is better suited.”
Among other things, Musk said in the interview with TIME that he would not be held responsible for how the markets react to his tweets: “Markets are in motion all the time on their own for no reason. Is the reaction to my statements significantly different from the random wanderings that they already have? I do not think so. As you can see from my tweets, this is humor, which I find funny, but not everyone agrees. "

- The Weiss Crypto rating agency still adheres to an optimistic scenario despite the protracted correction of the flagship cryptocurrency. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.
The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.
The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.

- According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. “They have not bought a single drawdown since the beginning of October and have only been selling lately,” he explained.
However, following the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting this week, the BTC rate may complete the correction and move to growth on the triggering of the “sell on rumors, buy on the news” rule. A similar scenario emerges based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Traders started placing buy orders in the range of $44,500-$46,000, while at the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading above $47,000.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Stan NordFX
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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:29 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 20 - 24, 2021


EUR/USD: Old News from the Fed And the ECB

The past week was the week of the Central Banks. The US Federal Reserve met on Wednesday, December 15, for the last time this year, the ECB and the Bank of England on December 16, and the Bank of Japan at the end of the working week, on Friday, December 17.

There is a trading model, FIFO: short for “first in, first out”. So, we will follow it, and we will begin to consider the results of the meetings in order in which they took place.

The first, as already mentioned, was the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve. Some investors expected any radical decisions from it, and the rhetoric of representatives of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday was more hawkish than expected. This pushed the EUR/USD pair towards the lower limit of the three-week side channel. However, having reached the level of 1.1220, it turned around and the dollar began to lose ground.

The market realized that, in fact, almost all parameters of the monetary policy remained unchanged. Only the quantitative easing (QE) program was revised: the rate of reduction in asset purchases increased from $15 billion to $30 billion per month. The program can be completely closed in March-April 2022.

The outlook for the labor market was slightly improved but was accompanied by concerns about the possible emergence of "new virus variants". Core inflation in 2022 may also be slightly higher: not 2.3%, as previously expected, but 2.7%. Inflation for 2023 is projected to grow by only 0.1%, and it will remain unchanged in 2024.

According to the Financial Times, despite aggressive statements, the Fed still considers inflation a temporary phenomenon, and expects to return it to the target range within two years, gradually raising federal funds rates.

The key interest rate was left unchanged at 0.25% at the last meeting. As for the regulator's plans for next year, if it was about two or three rate hikes earlier, the Fed's dot chart showed that there should be three of them now. But this is just a declaration of intentions that can be realized if the macroeconomic situation develops as expected by the regulator.

In general, all statements of the American central bank were devoid of any specifics this time. Markets learned what they already knew before. Therefore, their reaction was appropriate: the EUR/USD pair turned around and went north. Having passed 140 points on Thursday, December 16, it was already at the upper border of the side channel, at the level of 1.1360.

(Of course, this was not without the help of the pound, which, thanks to the decision of the Bank of England, put a lot of pressure on the dollar. We will talk about this in more detail below).

The results of the meeting of the European Central Bank did not surprise investors either. Like the Fed, the European regulator also raised its inflation forecast for next year. And it also considers it a temporary phenomenon. It declares this openly though and does not consider it necessary to fight it now. It was announced Once again that the refinancing rate will remain at the current level until inflation reaches the target level of 2.0%, at which it will remain for a long time. As a result, the “main” result of the meeting was the statement of the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde, that “it is very unlikely that we will raise rates in 2022”. And this was already known to everyone.

The dovish position of the ECB did not allow the EUR/USD pair to rise above the borders of the side channel, and anxiety about the Omicron strain pushed it sharply down, and it ended week trading session at the level of 1.1238.

As for the coming week, it is pre-Christmas. And seven days after Christmas, it's New Year's Eve. In the absence of large players, the market these days is quite thin, liquidity is low, which can be fraught with all sorts of surprises. This is increased volatility, gaps with serious gaps in quotations, and what traders call the “Santa Claus Rally”. Although, of course, the opposite option is also possible: with "lazy" movement of pairs in a narrow range.

As for the experts, 50% expect further strengthening of the US currency and the fall of the EUR/USD pair, 30% are betting on the growth of the euro. The remaining 20% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 80% point to the south (although 15% of them are in the oversold zone), 10% point north, and 10% point east. 100% of the trend indicators side with the bears.

Resistance levels are in the zones and at the levels 1.1265, 1.1300, 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1225, then 1.1185 and 1.1075-1.1100

The economic agenda of the year is practically exhausted, and no extra-important news is expected in the coming week. As for the reasons for breaking the trend or increased volatility, we can note the publication of annual data on US GDP on Wednesday December 22, and data on orders on capital goods and durable goods published by the U.S. Census Bureau the next day, December 23.

GBP/USD: The Bank of England's First Step
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We noted in the previous review that the No.1 task for the GBP/USD bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And we predicted that if the Bank of England did raise the interest rate on December 16, it would not be a problem. This is exactly what happened.

While the Fed and the ECB are only swinging, the Bank of England has moved to attack rising prices. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the regulator raised the rate for the first time in three years from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to the new Omicron coronavirus strain. However, according to the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, it is more important to curb the price pressure on the economy and society.

Of course, the rate hike by 15 basis points cannot be called significant, but, most importantly, the first step has already been taken, and the market expects the second rate hike in February.

It is difficult to say why many financial publications write that the current decision of the Bank of England came as a complete surprise. If you look at our previous forecast, 40% of experts predicted a rate hike and, as a result, the subsequent strengthening of the pound.

But the British currency failed to consolidate the victory. Having risen on Thursday December 16 to the high of 1.3373, the GBP/USD pair turned sharply and went down. Investors began to sell off the pound due to growing concerns about Omicron. Risk aversion contributed to the strengthening of the safer dollar and, accordingly, dealt a blow to the stock indices and quotes of the euro and the British pound, which ended the five-day period at 1.3235.

The experts' forecast for the coming week looks rather pre-holiday, that is, uncertain. 35% of them side with the bulls, the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 30% prefer not to take sides. Among the oscillators on D1, the situation is similar: 30% of them indicate buying, 45% are selling, and the remaining 25% advise to take a break and do nothing for now. The trend indicators have a fundamentally different mood: 100% are colored red.

The supports are located at 1.3210-1.3220, then 1.3170-1.3190, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960. Zones and resistance levels - 1.3285-1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

There will also be little macro-statistics important for the pound next week. Of particular interest are the UK GDP data for the Q3, which will be released on Wednesday, December 22. But the markets will focus on the situation with the spread of the new COVID-19 wave.

USD/JPY: The Sideways Trend Continues

The one that is not afraid of risk aversion is the yen. On the contrary, it is only happy with this. Giving the previous forecast, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) expected that with the help of the US Federal Reserve, the USD/JPY pair would go up and, perhaps, break the upper boundary of the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and the pair was noted at the height of 114.25 on December 15. Then, due to the panic of investors, it managed to win back losses and found a local bottom, dropping to 113.13, and the final chord sounded in the center of the weekly trading range: at the level of 113.70.

It is difficult to predict what will happen with Omicron and how the situation will affect the panic in the markets. So far, the US currency is leading with a slight margin in the struggle between the yen and the dollar: 55% of analysts have voted for the growth of the USD/JPY pair, 45% for its fall.

The readings of technical indicators just confirm the sideways movement of the pair along the horizon 113.50 for almost 10 last weeks. Among the oscillators, 30% look south on D1, 35% remain neutral, and the remaining 35% look north. Among trend indicators, green has a slight advantage, 60% to 40%.

Support levels are 113.20, 112.70, 112.00, 111.60 and 111.20. Resistance levels are 114.00, 114.25, 115.00 and 115.50.

And now the promised information about the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which, it seems, is not at all interested in strengthening its currency. And although the regulator reduced the volume of emergency financing related to the pandemic on Friday, December 17, it, as expected, left the interest rate unchanged, at the previous negative level, minus 0.1%.

The bank retained its ultra-soft policies and measures to support small businesses, and its head Haruhiko Kuroda said at the press conference that a weak yen would rather support the Japanese economy than harm it. According to the official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits. So we can confidently say that the monetary policy of this regulator will remain one of the most dovish in the foreseeable future.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Everything Is Complicated: It will be Either Winter, Or Spring Straight Away

Things are ambiguous in the crypto market. The total capitalization has remained almost unchanged over the past 7 days and amounts to $2.270 trillion ($2.215 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index made only a small step up from 24 points and shifted from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone, up to 29 points.

In this situation, some experts hope for the recovery of the upward trend of major coins, while others, on the contrary, predict a further fall. And then the end of 2017 comes to mind. Then, having conquered the $19,270 high in December, bitcoin collapsed instead of breaking above the iconic $20,000. It was already at $5,900 at the beginning of February 2018, losing 70% of its value and plunging investors and crypto enthusiasts into a state of deepest depression. And then long months of expectations and hopes followed, dubbed "crypto winter". The first hints of warming appeared only in March 2019, and the real crypto spring came a year later, in March 2020.

It isprecisely the possible onset of a new "ice age" that pessimists are talking about. We have already quoted renowned investor and economist Louis Navellier. According to him, a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000. Navellier, as well as another specialist, legendary trader and techno-analyst Peter Brandt, warned investors that a dangerous “double top” pattern is observed on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. “A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) will be a bearish signal,” he writes. “Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top figure, and such a decline may indicate a fall below $10,000.”

According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of bitcoin for $5,000 or even $15,000,” the expert reassures. “You can simply forget about such cryptocurrency prices. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000 but going below this mark is unlikely”.

According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. "They haven't bought a single drawdown since early October," he says, "and have only been selling lately." And if you look at the chart of the past two weeks, you can clearly see how the bears are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing, the struggle continues. It seems that the initiative returned to the bears at the end of the working week. The markets were hit by another wave of panic caused by the Omicron coronavirus strain, and the sale of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, began. The pair dipped to $45,525 late on Friday, December 17 but then rallied back to $46,500. According to IntoTheBlock specialists, BTC has a lot of chances to fall to the $43,000 zone in such a situation. It is only at this level that the coin will be able to find the local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

A slightly different support zone is emerging based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Its data indicate that a significant amount of orders to buy bitcoin was placed in the range of $44,500-$46,000.

Christmas and New Year are still kind and happy holidays. Therefore, on their eve, we would like to complete the forecast on a more or less positive note. The appearance of a “double top” pattern on the chart, according to a number of experts, does not at all mean that it will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.

The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.

Weiss Crypto rating agency also points to this magic figure. Despite the protracted correction, it still adheres to the optimistic scenario. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.

The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.

The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.


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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:49 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 22.12.jpg
- After the mining ban in China, local bitcoin miners still generate up to 20% of the total hashrate of the cryptocurrency network, CNBC reports with reference to experts.
One of the miners, who identified himself as Ben, told the TV channel how local industry players work illegally. He has been mining since 2015 and has 6,000 devices. After the repressions started, Ben distributed equipment across multiple sites so as not to show too high power consumption. Ben installed 1000 units throughout the country, wherever he could get the capacity. And 5,000 miners are connected directly to two small hydroelectric power plants in Sichuan province.
He explained that mining is being monitored for suspicious traffic by one of the largest telecommunications companies, China Telecom, which transmits information to the government.

- Regulatory clarity and an influx of institutional capital are needed to continue the growth of the cryptocurrency market, and 2022 "promises to be interesting for the industry." This opinion was expressed by one of the partners of the investment company The Spartan Group known as SpartanBlack.
“Investors have asked me repeatedly in the past few weeks when the crypto winter is coming,” he writes. "The last three crypto winters have traumatized the collective psyche of investors so much that everyone has become cautious after the powerful year 2021." According to the observations of the financier, many cryptocurrency holders took profits after each strong upward price movement. Therefore, there was no FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and no parabolic movement of quotes, as in the previous three phases of the bull market.
The expert expressed the opinion that a powerful catalyst is needed for a parabolic price movement: for example, the introduction of crypto-friendly rules by American regulators. This will open up access to digital currencies for large financial institutions.

- Investor interest in existing crypto projects will continue in 2022, and exchange operators and data providers will benefit the most. This forecast was given by Larry Cermak, an analyst and vice president of The Block.
In his opinion, the market will continue to grow, but it will become more thoughtful. And the focus will be on Layer 2 protocols enabling faster and cheaper transactions on top of blockchains. The key to this will be the existence of decentralized applications.

- Co-founder and CEO of Kraken exchange Jesse Powell had previously predicted bitcoin would rise above $100,000 by the end of the year. Now he does not exclude a further decline in the cryptocurrency market. Powell said in a conversation with Bloomberg that he believes the onset of a new crypto winter is possible and that the bitcoin market has historically been characterized by cyclical behaviour, with halving as its starting point.
That being said, Powell believes that if bitcoin falls below $40,000, investors will seize the opportunity to buy. “I think a lot of people see values below $40,000 as a buying opportunity. Personally, I was buying when the market approached $30,000 a few months ago. I think many are just waiting for a reliable minimum," the Kraken CEO said.

- Founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates, billionaire Ray Dalio, called traditional currencies a problem asset in a comment to Yahoo Finance. “Most investors consider fiat money to be the safest investment. And I think this is the worst investment,” he said. According to Dalio, you should not judge the profitability of your assets in nominal terms, but you need to make an adjustment for inflation. So, investors lost 4-5% due to the inflation of the US dollar in 2021.
Dalio also admitted that he invested in ethereum, but did not give an exact figure, he only said that he holds part of the portfolio in cryptocurrencies in order to diversify. “I see them as alternative money. It is impressive that digital currencies have lasted 10-11 years: they have not been hacked and they have a level of acceptance. "

- An American private National Bureau of Economic Research published a study that claims that 10,000 accounts, or 0.01% of all bitcoin holders, own 5 million BTC, or 27% of all coins in circulation (18.9 million). This suggests that bitcoin is not as decentralized as people think. “Despite 14 years of existence and the buzz it has made, it is still a very concentrated ecosystem,” said Professor Antoinette Shoar of the MIT Sloan School of Management.
According to the founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, a significant part of the BTC turnover is still controlled by the anonymous creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto. “Satoshi's own coins alone account for more than 5%,” Greenspan told Cointelegraph.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett spoke about the possible exit of bitcoin from the correction phase and the return of the bullish trend. After retesting the Dec 4 lows close to $40,000, he said, bitcoin could form a double bottom structure and then rally to above $60,000.
Bennett continues to give bitcoin a bullish outlook, even if it plunges below the important psychological level of $40,000. “I’m not against BTC falling below $40,000,” he says, “although many believe that in this case, we may face a bearish market. Yes, we will lose support for the December 4 low, but everyone wants to see higher highs. Even if the retesting of the $35,000 level happens, you need to understand that you could already see a similar situation at the beginning of 2021."

- Cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen told his 663,000 YouTube subscribers what he thinks ethereum will have in 2022. To do this, he looked at the consolidation phases in 2016 and 2017, which preceded massive upward breakouts. Cowen noted that the leading altcoin is likely to have a combination of the two phases in the near future.
The analyst believes that the ethereum consolidation could last until mid-2022, but the likely end result will be a breakout. “I believe ethereum will hit record highs in 2022 and may continue to grow in 2023, but it’s hard to count on at the moment,” he says. “I imagine the sideways movement will continue for a while, especially with bitcoin looking somewhat weak at the moment,” continues Cowen. “I don’t know how high ETH can go up afterwards. I think $10,000 is a reasonable goal, we could even reach $20,000. "

- Michael van de Poppe, trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, has released another review in which he talks about what will happen in the cryptocurrency market in the coming months and years.
The analyst believes that bitcoin will still bottom in the $40,000 area in the winter, after which it will go up again. From Van de Poppe's point of view, the main sign that the bullish cycle has not yet reached its top is the fact that we have not yet seen a phase of euphoria in the market, and we are not currently seeing massive selling from long-term coin holders. This means that we are in the middle of a bullish cycle.
“I think bitcoin will copy the rally that was seen in 2020 and 2021,” said the famous trader. According to this scenario, the vertical take-off of 2020 and 2021 will repeat in the Q1-2 of 2022, ending at around $530,000. After that, there will be a long bearish market until a new bullish phase in 2024. This bearish market may coincide with the global economic crisis.
But there is another scenario as well. It suggests that bitcoin remains “relatively calm” with ethereum as the key trigger. In this case, periods of bitcoin growth will be interrupted by periods of consolidation. The growth of the main cryptocurrency will not be as pronounced as in the first case, and it will reach "only" the height of $100,000-120,000 in 2022.


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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Re: Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

Sun Dec 26, 2021 6:12 pm

Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar in 2022


It is always interesting to know whose predictions came true and whose predictions did not. Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR/USD rate for 2021, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent. Or, on the contrary, which one was wrong.
EURUSD Forecast.jpg

Last Year's Forecast: They Were Wrong after All

December 2019 There was no talk of a global pandemic that month, when the first outbreak of COVID-19 was recorded in Wuhan, China. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock.

As the pandemic raged on, this scenario began to prove its case. Since the last decade of March, the dollar began to lose ground, and the EUR/USD pair crawled up. Starting on March 22, 2020, from 1.0630, it met the new 2021 at 1.2300.

The Fed was in full swing implementing its monetary stimulus program on the eve of 2021, and the printing press was working at full capacity, filling the American market with new, unsecured dollars. There were no plans to curtail monetary stimulus and, moreover, to raise the interest rate.

Based on this and looking back at the dynamics of the dollar over the last three quarters of 2020, experts were making their forecasts for the coming months. Most of them were inclined to believe that money would actively flow to Europe in 2021, and the dollar would face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assessed the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

For example, one of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, predicted a drop in the weighted USD rate by only 6%, and Morgan Stanley expected the EUR/USD pair to rise to 1.2500. (By the way, the figure of 1.2500 was also sounded in many other moderate forecasts).

But there were also those who predicted a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimated the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believed that the devaluation of the dollar could reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% was forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, now that you are reading this review, the EUR/USD pair should have been in the 1.4000-1.4400 zone.

The pair did start to grow with the onset of 2021. But this trend lasted ... less than one week. It reached the level of 1.2350 on January 6, and this was the year's high. Everything changed starting from January 7, and the dollar began to win back losses.

The US currency moved in a sinusoidal manner until the end of May, fluctuating along with the waves of the coronavirus and statements by the Fed leaders. But the mood of the US Central Bank began to clearly change from dovish to hawkish just before the onset of summer, the country's economy was recovering, and confidence in the imminent tightening of the FRS monetary policy began to grow among investors. And this means a reduction in asset repurchases and an increase in the interest rate on federal funds in the long term. Investors began to recall the "bread" times of the summer of 2019, when the rate was equal to 2.25%, and not the current "beggarly" 0.25%.

The American currency went into steady growth (minor corrections do not count) after that, and is now completing 2021in the 1.1200-1.1300 zone. That is, it is very far from 1.2500, as had been predicted by respected experts. It's not even worth talking about 1.4000-1.4400.


What Experts Expect in the New Year

If the forecasts for the dollar for the past 2021 were more like obituaries, the prospects for the USD in the eyes of some experts look much more optimistic now. And all due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve, unlike the central banks of many other G20 countries, has actively embarked on curtailing its QE program, the US economy, including the labor market, is recovering well, GDP growth is projected at 5%, and now, according to the Federal Reserve, it is time to curb inflation. The fact that the interest rate will rise to at least 1.5% by the end of 2023 is now almost beyond doubt.

In this situation, according to experts of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), the dovish position of the Central Banks of the EU, Japan and Switzerland, more tolerant of price increases, will cause their national currencies to fall significantly behind the dollar in 2022. ING strategists believe that the EUR/USD pair will fall to the 1.1100 zone in Q2 and Q4 of next year, and it will be even lower at 1.1000 in Q4.

Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) are in solidarity with ING. “Our main argument,” their forecast says, “is based on two factors supporting the dollar: 1. a slowdown in global economic growth and 2. the Federal Reserve’s gradual transition to a possible rate hike. These two forces are likely to remain decisive and should support the gradual appreciation of the dollar in 2022.” HSBC analysts also believe that the trend of the EUR/USD pair will be downward, as the ECB does not plan to raise the key rate until the end of 2022.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists also side with the US dollar, marking the following route for the EUR/USD pair for the coming year: Q2 - 1.1100, Q3 - 1.1000, Q4 - 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200. That is, in this case, we can already talk about a sideways trend.

It should be noted that not all the authorities in the financial world are betting on the strength of the dollar. Many analysts have taken the opposite position and, on the contrary, expect a weakening of the US currency “In 2022, - writes FXStreet, - the Federal Reserve System may return to dovish positions that will put pressure on the dollar.”

Barclays Bank already considers the dollar to be highly overestimated. Therefore, it is expected to depreciate moderately against the backdrop of rising risk appetites and commodity prices, caused by the recovery of the global world economy and cooling inflation. The Barclays scenario written for EUR/USD looks like this: Q1 2022 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published their scenarios of the dynamics of the foreign exchange market for the next 12 months. In addition to the aforementioned JP Morgan and Barclays, the respondents were banking conglomerates Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, as well as Europe's largest asset management company Amundi.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's rate hike will proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks will move from dovish to hawkish politics. This will lead to a convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise the EUR/USD pair to 1.1800.

Goldman Sachs strategists call the same goal of 1.1800. Although, in this case, this can be considered a success for the US currency. The fact is that an earlier forecast of this investment bank pointed to a much higher mark of 1.2500.

Amundi believes that the Fed “has little to do to surprise market expectations” and, although a moderate normalization of monetary policy “will remain generally positive for the dollar” by the end of the year, the pair will reach 1.1400.

The most unexpected forecast was given by the strategists of the Wells Fargo investment institute. They just named a wide range from 1.1000 to 1.1800. And it is quite possible that this prediction will prove to be the most correct one.

There is such a proverb, “Man believes, and Life has”. Its meaning is that human plans, even the most thoughtful ones, are imperfect and changeable. Life, however, puts everything in its place over time. So we will only be able to understand at the end of next year who of the influencers was right. In the meantime, on the eve of the new year, we wish you success in your work, financial well-being, good health and excellent mood. Happy New Year!

***

In the next review, in a week, we will tell you what experts think about the future of the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the British pound (GBP/USD), the Canadian (USD/CAD) and the Australian (AUD/ USD) dollars, Swedish kronor (USD/SEK), Swiss franc (USD/CHF) and Chinese yuan (USD/CNH).


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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:40 pm

CryptoNews of the Week
CryptoNews 29.12.jpg
- Elon Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto. Such a sensational statement was made by a SpaceX and Tesla ex-software developper Sahil Gupta. He revealed details that, in his opinion, prove that Musk is the creator of bitcoin, since he had the necessary resources, knowledge and motivation to do so.
In addition, Sahil Gupta claims that he had once directly asked the billionaire representative Sam Teller if Musk was the creator of bitcoin, he was silent for about 15 seconds, and then said: "Well, what can I say...".

- Philip Hammond, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, who also served as Foreign Secretary, Secretary of Defense and Minister of Transport, called on retail investors to be “extremely cautious” when investing in cryptocurrencies.
“If a member of my family asked me [whether to invest in cryptocurrency], I would draw their attention to the fact that large and reputable asset managers are now more likely to test the waters [...] It is almost certainly not suitable for retail investors as the main investment grade ", - said Baron Hammond. In his opinion, buying a cryptocurrency is more of a gamble than a serious investment.

- Unlike Baron Hammond, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, called on subscribers to actively buy the first cryptocurrency in his New Year's address.
“Stay away from fiat money. The dollar, the euro, the yen, the peso are all the same. It is fake money made of paper and lies. Central banks print more money than ever. Invest in bitcoin,” he said. The billionaire reported that he invested 10% of his liquid portfolio in bitcoin back in November 2020.

“The cryptocurrency market will grow to tens of trillions of dollars,” said Jihan Wu, co-founder of Bitmain and head of Matrixport and Bitdeer, in an interview with Forbes. In his opinion, "even if 95% of existing coins are depreciated or disappear, the growth rate of the remaining 5% will be enormous."
“Innovations like DeFi are breathtaking. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain have created a new world, enabling fintech entrepreneurs to achieve great success. Traditional financial institutions and regulators will also adopt blockchain technology over time,” the billionaire believes.

- The frequency of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter increased by 350% in 2021 compared to 2020. 101 million tweets with the word “bitcoin” were published in just 12 months, according to data from the analytical company Visibrain.
The number of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter jumped sharply against the backdrop of various events. So, there was a surge in the popularity of the asset in February against the background of the flash mob "laser eyes", the participants of which put photos with laser eyes on their Twitter avatars and promised not to change them until bitcoin rose in price to $100,000. An increase in mentions also occurred when Tesla suspended the sale of its cars for bitcoins, and El Salvador recognized the cryptocurrency as an official means of payment.

- Joseph Tsai, Vice Chairman of the Chinese Internet Company Alibaba, announced his commitment to cryptocurrencies. He tweeted a simple and short phrase, "I like cryptocurrencies," to which a lot of users responded. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao did not ignore Tsai's tweet either and replied, "I like Joe."
Recall that the Chinese authorities are taking serious measures against the cryptocurrency industry. And this was the reason that, despite the loyalty of its vice president, the e-commerce giant has already begun to implement an anti-cryptocurrency policy. Alibaba announced last autumn that it will be forbidden to sell mining equipment on the platform. The company has also pledged to stop selling books and tutorials related to the digital asset industry.

- A well-known trader and analyst Tone Weiss predicts a powerful surge of bitcoin. He believes that the current market situation does not reflect the potential of the first cryptocurrency, and the current situation is just a “speed bump in the bull market”. The specialist recalled that similar phenomena have already happened in the past, and each time bitcoin, having overcome the section that slowed it down, picked up speed again. At the same time, Weiss noted that he does not know exactly to what minimum BTC may fall before its value begins to increase.
The trader also noted that bitcoin is currently trading within a large ascending triangle on the monthly chart. This is a bullish pattern suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. The analyst believes that the asset's overcoming the $60,000 level will open the way for a large-scale rally to $100,000 and above.

- Analyst PlanB also believes that the digital asset is bound to grow. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model. PlanB has previously claimed that the main cryptocurrency will be able to break through the $100,000 level before the end of this year. Despite the fact that his forecast did not come true, the analyst continues to believe the S2F signals.

- Lukas Lagoudis, CEO of ARK36 cryptocurrency hedge fund, believes in maintaining the upward trend in the crypto market next year. According to him, the value of coins will increase due to the inflow of capital from institutional investors and the integration of digital assets into traditional financial systems. Lagoudis suggests that the popularity of virtual currencies should increase due to rising inflation and declining bond yields.

- Documentaries that talk about bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry appear on the film market from time to time. Some of them have earned rave reviews from critics and users interested in the industry.
The first place in the TOP-3 is taken by the documentary "This Machine Greens", which tells about the mining process. "Man B" is in the second place, in which the authors examine the attitude of the citizens of Germany and Austria towards bitcoin. The third line is taken by the documentary film "Hard Money". This short film explains why bitcoin is so important for the entire planet. It can also be used to find out why gold was chosen as the main asset for civilization at one time, and what its drawbacks are.

- The US Congress approved an increase in the national debt limit by another $2.5 trillion. According to experts, this decision will once again postpone the threat of federal default until at least the beginning of 2023, accelerate inflation in the United States and lead to an increase in investment in gold and bitcoin.
Max Keiser, a well-known crypto investor and founder of Heisenberg Capital, said the bill created “ideal conditions for bitcoin to grow as the US government capitulated to hyperinflation”. “I don’t want to see America collapse, but I don’t have that many dollars, so I don’t care,” Kaiser announced.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss (Tyler Winklevoss) wrote on Twitter that the approval by the US Senate of the debt ceiling “will actually work as advertising for bitcoin at $2.5 trillion.” Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, shares a similar view. “It looks like bitcoin is enjoying government support,” he writes.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:52 am

Leading Banks Forecast for 2022: JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF, SEK, CNH

Forecast 03.jpg
We talked a week ago about what experts from the world's leading banks and agencies think about the behavior of the EUR/USD pair in the coming 2022. And the fact that we paid attention to it in the first place is quite logical: after all, this pair is the most traded on the Forex market, and the European currency itself leads by a huge margin in the formation of the US Dollar Index DXY, with 57.6%.

Recall that DXY was developed by the US Federal Reserve in 1973 and shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of 6 major world currencies. This basket includes euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%).

In our opinion, the economic situation in the world has changed quite a lot over the past almost half a century since the inception of DXY. And at least the Chinese yuan should have appeared in the basket. Therefore, below we will look at the prospects for both the currency pairs that form the dollar index: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, USD/CHF, and some other, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CNH.


USD/JPY: Japan Needs a Weak Yen

It is known that inflation, along with the recovery of the labor market, is one of the two main factors that central banks focus on in their monetary policy.

The positive GDP gap is also called the inflation gap, because it indicates that the growth of aggregate demand outstrips the growth of aggregate supply and accelerates inflation. This, according to the IMF, will be observed in the United States (+ 3.3%) and Canada (+ 0.8%) in 2022. And regulators will have to take active steps to tighten their monetary policy in order to contain inflation. And this, according to experts from the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), will give the currencies of these countries, primarily the USD, an advantage over the currencies of those countries where GDP has negative gap. It is also called recessionary, since the excess of supply over demand is the path to deflation.

The recession gap has been observed since 2008 in Japan and is likely to repeat in 2022. That is why the policy of the Bank of Japan is one of the most dovish among the central banks of other countries, and the interest rate on the yen has been held at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has recently said that a weak yen would rather help the country's economy than harm it. According to the senior official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits.

ING Group believes that such a differentiation between the approaches of the US Federal Reserve and the Japanese regulator will strengthen the dollar's position against the yen. Their quarterly forecast for USD/JPY for this year is as follows: Q1 - 114.00, Q2 - 115.00, Q3 - 118.00 and Q4 - 120.00.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale estimates the probability that the pair will rise to 116.00 in the Q2 at 50%, and up to 118.00 - 25%. Experts bet the remaining 25% on a bearish scenario and the fall of the pair to 110.00.

Analysts from other leading global banks also prefer the dollar. However, unlike their colleagues from ING, a number of forecasts has the peak not at the end, but in the middle of the year. Barclays Bank's forecast looks like this: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 116.00 and Q4 - 115.00. The CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) forecast paints a similar picture: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 115.00, Q4 - 114.00.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published the opinion of their experts regarding the values of the USD/JPY pair in the second half - late 2022. For the most part, forecasts point to a strengthening dollar: JP Morgan Q3 - 114.00, Amundi Q4 - 116.00, Morgan Stanley Q4 - 118.00. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the pair will fall to 111.00 in 2023.


GBP/USD: At the Crossroads of Three Roads

Regarding the future of the British currency, British investment Barclays Bank has taken a very patriotic stance. His strategists consider the pound to be highly undervalued and predict that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 2021 highs and rise to 1.4200 by the end of the year.

Unlike most investment banks, Barclays believes that the policy of the US Federal Reserve does not provide strong support for the US currency at all, and this will lead to its moderate depreciation. The Bank expects other central banks to take a more aggressive stance than the Fed, with higher interest rates, thereby limiting the attractiveness of the dollar. First of all, of course, we are talking here about the Bank of England.

As for the short-term outlook for the pound, Barclays’ analysts are more cautious here, as the impact of high inflation will neutralize the potential support from a slight increase in interest rates. In addition, concerns about the new wave of COVID-19 and the difficulties with the EU due to Brexit need to be considered. As a result, Barclays' quarterly forecast is as follows: Q1 - 1.3300, Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000 and Q4 - 1.4200.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent research centers in the UK, took the opposite position. Its specialists, on the contrary, expect the pound to weaken, and refer to a combination of 1) weak economic growth, 2) slowdown in inflation and 3) slowness of the Bank of England. These three factors may lead to the fact that the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the rate to only 0.5% in the coming months instead of 1.0%, and thus disappoint the markets.

But, in addition to the growth and fall of the British currency, there is a third scenario. ING Group analysts predict that the pound will be somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, the GBP/USD pair will move in a sideways trend: Q1-1.3300, Q2-1.3400, Q3-1.3400 and Q4-1.3400.


Other Currency Pairs

- If Barclays Bank believes in its national currency, CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists are quite pessimistic about the future. In their opinion, the Canadian dollar may become weaker this year. “Markets overestimated the possible actions of the Bank of Canada in 2022,” says CIBC, “and underestimated the Fed in 2022. Recalibration will leave CAD out of favor with investors.” The bank's forecast for the USD/CAD pair is as follows: Q1-1.2800, Q2-1.2900, Q3-1.3000 and Q4-1.3000.

- Experts at HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) believe that some currencies will still be able to hold their ground against the stronger US dollar, including the Australian dollar. HSBC believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia may take a more hawkish position, given the rather strong macroeconomic data.

- ING strategists do not exclude that the Australian dollar may benefit from undervaluation and being oversold either. However, taking long positions on the AUD/USD pair, in their opinion, still carries a high risk.

-In addition, according to ING experts, together with the euro (EUR/USD) and the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the Swiss franc will also lag significantly behind the dollar (USD/CHF) in 2022 as well as Swedish Krona (USD/SEK).

- Barclays Bank's forecast for other currency pairs included in the palette of trading instruments of the brokerage company NordFX is as follows: EUR/GBP : Q1 - 0.87, Q2 - 0.86, Q3 - 0.85, Q4 - 0.84 | USD/CHF : Q1 - 0.91, Q2 - 0.90, Q3 - 0.90, Q4 - 0.90 | AUD/USD : Q1 - 0.75, Q2 - 0.76, Q3 - 0.77, Q4 - 0.78 | NZD/USD : Q1 - 0.73, Q2 - 0.73, Q3 - 0.73, Q4 - 0.73 | USD/CAD : Q1 - 1.23, Q2 - 1.22, Q3 - 1.21, Q4 - 1.21 | USD/CNH : Q1 - 6.35, Q2 - 6.30, Q3 - 6.40, Q4 - 6.50.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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