Good post. Well worth everyone watching Andreas' answer to the question.
Some of the sound bites could be read on both sides of the room, for example:
...there's a lot of bluffing, there's a lot of barking...
...the smaller the dog, the more it barks.
Playing the other side of the field to that which Andreas currently resides, I could suggest that as BU gains more traction and conversely the smaller Core becomes, the more "bluffing and barking" we hear from Core.
I do not see that any minority fork will be able to continue with the foundational components of the protocol still in place, simply because of the difficulty readjustment times and the amount of lost hashing power on the minority chain. Neither side of this impasse will risk a fork with too low a hash rate in support as the chances of being on a chain that takes 20+ minutes to mine a block would be disastrous and the chain would fizzle out within days, if not hours. The mathematics speak clearly in this regard.