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Skin_in_the_game
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Blocksize limit is a tree hiding the forest

Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:57 pm

First I want to say that I don't really care about 1MB or 8MB limit or whatever other limit. The crystallization on this issue I feel is overdone and people on both sides are way too extreme about their beliefs in my humble opinion.

For example, reading r/btc, one might get the idea that all is needed is moving to 8mb blocks and that the flow of new users is just waiting outside.

But:
1/The main usage of Bitcoin is still speculation as you can see by watching exchanges address.

2/The fees are still incredibly low compared to any other system used to move value.

3/ Altcoins speculation is nothing new and while the Ether marketcap might have reached $1B thanks to the civil war climate. Altcoins will be there no matter what. The deleterious climate is potentially more responsible for any investor fear than the scaling issue.

Altcoins provide a playground for experimentation and mostly speculation. You need something to speculate with besides BTCUSD. Altcoins benefits from Bitcoin volatility decrease more than from any perceived scaling issue. There's always going to be new waves of people who missed the huge early gains and want to get in from the start. It's easier to go from 10M to 100M that from 10B to 100B .The vast majority of altcoin trading is done in Bitcoin. Most people are just trying to accumulate more Bitcoins or fiat.

4/ Bitcoin adoption is going to take a long time no matter what, 10x+ gains have to be realized. Bitcoin is never going to be worth dozens, hundred of billions in 1 year. This is a process that might take decades and will only be accelerated if a major currency crisis happens while Bitcoin is already seen as serious competition (min mkcap>$100B or something on that scale).

5/ Living in the Bitcoin sphere means we have a feeling of slowed time. When you check bitcoin news every day you have the impression nothing is changing because you are looking at the wrong timeframe.

6/ When there will be REAL pressure on fees, there will be consensus to lift the limit. There is no need to go around fighting imaginary enemies like Don Quixote. The reason there is no consensus is that there is no shared sense of emergency. And that will happen naturally, wanting to skip that naturaal phase is just wasting your own time. Things happen in a process. You can't skip the steps. And you are not going to convince people with hard entrenched beliefs on one side or the other.

7/ And most Important, there are not millions of people just waiting for low fees to get in. People who want to get on Bitcoin are betting on its future value increasing compared to the current price. And they do so imagining what it can be in a few years, not what it is now. So current limitation have little bearings. Moreoever the price is actually the most important factor in their decision and we are not even past the previous all time high. There is no sense of urgency or fear of missing out. The fear that it will disappear in a never ending Bear Market has recessed, now all that is needed is some time, a new attempt at a all time high. This narrative is 10000x more powerful than the pointless virtual civil war on 1mb or 8mb blocksize which frankly doesn't change anything in the big picture and in the long term (Bitcoin needs to go way over that many tps)

At this point, most people have a least heard of the name Bitcoin. Most of them don't know or care what it is FOR NOW. I'm not even sure there is anything important to do besides waiting, using it when you really feel it's convenient rather than pushing it on everyone like 2 years ago and buying more for those who still don't have enough. And most importantly relax. A change of this scale is always going to take forever and need a few tipping point events along the way.

Conclusion: If you believe cryptocurrency is inevitable, you just have to be patient. You are already right. What do you think is going to replace Bitcoin ? Ethereum ? Ethereum current civil war is 10times worse, it has many more question marks than Bitcoin, it has even more scaling issues, it's even more unproven, even its usage as smart contract platform, nobody knows yet if it's actually useful or not. Other altcoins are so far behind, they don't even need to be talked about. It's my belief that Bitcoin is already beyong reach from altcoins. It's already 7 years old. If there was a special magic bullet, obviously superior, I still don't see why it wouldn't be incorporated in Bitcoin or in Bitcoin fork (one with major support, which is not going to happen now). Worst case scenario you can just buy the 2nd altcoin as an hedge by putting the equivalent of 10% of your Bitcoin holdings if you are so scared. And then you'll get to sleep like a baby.

For disclosure, I own Bitcoins since mid-2013 albeit knowing about it since 2011. I bought Ethereum in 2015 and sold everything after the DAO. I now have some ETC mostly as speculation and a bit as a Bitcoin hedge even If don't believe that Ethereum provide any threat anymore after the fiasco it has been through.

iFixBTCmemoryIssues
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Posts: 2682
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Re: Blocksize limit is a tree hiding the forest

Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:11 pm

First I want to say that I don't really care about 1MB or 8MB limit or whatever other limit. The crystallization on this issue I feel is overdone and people on both sides are way too extreme about their beliefs in my humble opinion.

For example, reading r/btc, one might get the idea that all is needed is moving to 8mb blocks and that the flow of new users is just waiting outside.

But:
1/The main usage of Bitcoin is still speculation as you can see by watching exchanges address.

2/The fees are still incredibly low compared to any other system used to move value.

3/ Altcoins speculation is nothing new and while the Ether marketcap might have reached $1B thanks to the civil war climate. Altcoins will be there no matter what. The deleterious climate is potentially more responsible for any investor fear than the scaling issue.

Altcoins provide a playground for experimentation and mostly speculation. You need something to speculate with besides BTCUSD. Altcoins benefits from Bitcoin volatility decrease more than from any perceived scaling issue. There's always going to be new waves of people who missed the huge early gains and want to get in from the start. It's easier to go from 10M to 100M that from 10B to 100B .The vast majority of altcoin trading is done in Bitcoin. Most people are just trying to accumulate more Bitcoins or fiat.

4/ Bitcoin adoption is going to take a long time no matter what, 10x+ gains have to be realized. Bitcoin is never going to be worth dozens, hundred of billions in 1 year. This is a process that might take decades and will only be accelerated if a major currency crisis happens while Bitcoin is already seen as serious competition (min mkcap>$100B or something on that scale).

5/ Living in the Bitcoin sphere means we have a feeling of slowed time. When you check bitcoin news every day you have the impression nothing is changing because you are looking at the wrong timeframe.

6/ When there will be REAL pressure on fees, there will be consensus to lift the limit. There is no need to go around fighting imaginary enemies like Don Quixote. The reason there is no consensus is that there is no shared sense of emergency. And that will happen naturally, wanting to skip that naturaal phase is just wasting your own time. Things happen in a process. You can't skip the steps. And you are not going to convince people with hard entrenched beliefs on one side or the other.

7/ And most Important, there are not millions of people just waiting for low fees to get in. People who want to get on Bitcoin are betting on its future value increasing compared to the current price. And they do so imagining what it can be in a few years, not what it is now. So current limitation have little bearings. Moreoever the price is actually the most important factor in their decision and we are not even past the previous all time high. There is no sense of urgency or fear of missing out. The fear that it will disappear in a never ending Bear Market has recessed, now all that is needed is some time, a new attempt at a all time high. This narrative is 10000x more powerful than the pointless virtual civil war on 1mb or 8mb blocksize which frankly doesn't change anything in the big picture and in the long term (Bitcoin needs to go way over that many tps)

At this point, most people have a least heard of the name Bitcoin. Most of them don't know or care what it is FOR NOW. I'm not even sure there is anything important to do besides waiting, using it when you really feel it's convenient rather than pushing it on everyone like 2 years ago and buying more for those who still don't have enough. And most importantly relax. A change of this scale is always going to take forever and need a few tipping point events along the way.

Conclusion: If you believe cryptocurrency is inevitable, you just have to be patient. You are already right. What do you think is going to replace Bitcoin ? Ethereum ? Ethereum current civil war is 10times worse, it has many more question marks than Bitcoin, it has even more scaling issues, it's even more unproven, even its usage as smart contract platform, nobody knows yet if it's actually useful or not. Other altcoins are so far behind, they don't even need to be talked about. It's my belief that Bitcoin is already beyong reach from altcoins. It's already 7 years old. If there was a special magic bullet, obviously superior, I still don't see why it wouldn't be incorporated in Bitcoin or in Bitcoin fork (one with major support, which is not going to happen now). Worst case scenario you can just buy the 2nd altcoin as an hedge by putting the equivalent of 10% of your Bitcoin holdings if you are so scared. And then you'll get to sleep like a baby.

For disclosure, I own Bitcoins since mid-2013 albeit knowing about it since 2011. I bought Ethereum in 2015 and sold everything after the DAO. I now have some ETC mostly as speculation and a bit as a Bitcoin hedge even If don't believe that Ethereum provide any threat anymore after the fiasco it has been through.
Are you qualified to give financial advice? Probably not.
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Skin_in_the_game
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Nickel Bitcoiner
Posts: 54
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:51 pm

Re: Blocksize limit is a tree hiding the forest

Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:21 pm

Maybe. I'm a succesful trader with years of experience ? you ?

rizzlarolla
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Posts: 248
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:48 pm

Re: Blocksize limit is a tree hiding the forest

Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:37 pm

skininthegame, I don't understand the title, but I'll give my view to your post. (i just quote your post in "italic " )


"First I want to say that I don't really care about 1MB or 8MB limit or whatever other limit"
Ok, so you wouldn't mind 8mb hf?
Or you don't mind because you want 1mb, and that is what we have got. Why would you argue one way or the other if you "don't care"

"1/The main usage of Bitcoin is still speculation "
Because no decent sized company can use Bitcoin without creating a mempool backlog, leading to higher fees and delays in confirmation. How can they use Bitcoin at the present 1mb scale?

"2/The fees are still incredibly low compared to any other system"
20 cent is not cheap if you want to send 25 cent. I have given my view on fees in the Jihan thread if you are interested in my opinion on fees.

"3/Altcoins"
snip

"4/ Bitcoin adoption is going to take a long time no matter what, ... only be accelerated if a major currency crisis happens."
If blocks are full now, which they sort of are, how can any new adoption really happen. there can be very few "more" transactions than now. (see 1)

"5/ Living in the Bitcoin sphere means we have a feeling of slowed time."
Really?

"6/ When there will be REAL pressure on fees, there will be consensus to lift the limit."
When "you" feel the pressure you mean? Or maybe people just stop using Bitcoin instead. All the little guys who think 50 cent is something. I think that is what we are seeing at the moment.

"7/ And most Important, there are not millions of people just waiting for low fees to get in. ... so imagining what it can be in a few years, not what it is now."
I disagree. These people are not all "traders". These "users" are not waiting "to get in". They are considering the usability and affordability.


"Conclusion: If you believe cryptocurrency is inevitable, you just have to be patient."
I agree here. (if you mean bitcoin)

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