Great analysis, I look forward to reading your posts!web version: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitc ... 00-support
In the graph above you can see volatility in bitcoin is near its lows for the past 3 months. Visit our volatility index page to see more charts from BitMEX on multiple timeframes.
Bitcoin has a tendency to not be flat for too long before it makes a big move. To look at it from a different point of view, let's see the 1-day candles from the OKCoin weekly futures contract with bollinger bands to illustrate:
The tightness of the outter bands indicates that bitcoin has been quiet for too long and that it is overdue or a move. Look at the past instances of tight bands, for instance back in mid-February when it had a big move up.
However on the lower time frames we are in a brief downtrend, so this time the move may be in the opposite direction, see the 4-hour on Huobi of BTCCNY:
Note how price has struggled to make any meaningful moves upwards. Instead it is making lower highs and starting to point downward on the moving averages.
In the futures market we see slightly bearish sentiment from the spreads from OKCoin:
Both Weekly and Biweekly are in a slight discount, so they are below Fair Value, which should be positive bitcoin, and this is a bearflag overall. However, it may be a great buying opportunity for the Quarterlies if you are bullish. The low premium would begin to rise more than the spot price increase if it were to suddenly have a burst upward.
At CryptoFacilities, where they have further contract horizons, we can see that the forward curve is quite flat, all the way out to December the price is barely at fair value:
There's not much news going forward. Ethereum is still moving around, chopping in the 0.025-0.028 range, which may have some effect, it's worth keeping an eye on.
There has not been much talk about Classic or any network issues, so there could be a stealth bull play here even though sentiment is kind of negative.
If you are concerned about the price dropping, don't forget to just sell futures on CryptoFacilities or BitMEX and earn bitcoin as the price drops to help offset the fiat value reduction.
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