hello Tuur! greetings.
1)i'm working on building for the first time my investment portfolio, i have a 2.5% of my capital in bitcoins, and am planing to rising it to about 6%, what i'm wondering is this - if i get lucky and bitcoin rises many-fold as hoped, it will become a bigger and bigger percent of my investment , what are you thoughts on taking out profits and scaling out in this gradual scenario? what percent of profit taking would you consider wise at what point? (i will not take this as individual investment advice! just curious to hear your personal thoughts )
i guess that if i'm betting on a high profit in case of mainstream bitcoin adoption, i should cash out profits in according to the stage in adoption ,right?
Hi Hazir,
How and when to take profit in Bitcoin is a difficult subject to comment about. It depends on your age, time horizon, your conviction level, your individual financial situation, your legal situation (are capital gains taxed in your country?), and so forth.
If you have a rebalancing approach to investing, the answer is quite simple I think: at the end of the year, trim down your Bitcoin allocation (i.e. buy or sell) until it again represents the desired percentage in your portfolio (in your case that seems to be 6%).
If you are a passive investor, you 'buy and hold', only to trim off your Bitcoin holdings annually with what you'd otherwise expect to receive as dividends on stocks, or interest payments on bonds.
If you have a more active approach to investing, you might want to gradually sell into the rally (if you don't trust your ability of 'calling' the top), or you might want to sell on the way down, when the markets crash and then bounce back but not above the previous high.
Personally, although I do over time want to diminish my exposure to Bitcoin, have more of a buy and hold approach.
2)what are your thoughts on the current price of a bitcoin (320$~), do you tend to think it's a symptom of the block halving?
The block halving is yet to come (cutting the supply of new BTC in half from 3600 BTC / day to 1800 BTC / day, and I think prices will likely rise in anticipation of that event.
The level to watch, imo, is the $300 level. If the price falls below that, we could see another period of consolidation, with prices mostly between $200 and $300. If stays above $300, it will likely serve as the take off strip for a big rally.
3)what areas of short and long term investment do you find interesting currently?
Long term: undervalued stock markets (hard to find, but there are a few left in the world), Bitcoin, gold mining shares, tech stocks (after a serious correction), ...
Short term: long USD, some strategic short positions in stocks.
4)what reading material and advice would you point a new investor to? i'm at the stage of trying to absorb as much information as possible and would be grateful for your input!
It's hard to say because there are so many fruitful approaches to investing.
Some suggestions that I think have worked for me:
- Austrian School economics for a solid theoretical foundation (see
here for example)
- Material that gets you in the mindset and decision making process of great investors (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, RealVisionTV, etc.)
- Study the history of markets, in particular the history of booms and busts
- Focus on improving self knowledge (therapy, keeping a diary, etc) in order to better understand the emotional aspects of decision making
- Read current analysis of what is happening in the markets. As time progresses and you get to look back, you'll develop sort of a catalogue about which analyses produced correct predictions and which didn't.
Good luck!